How many DVD consumers purchase HD DVD by mistake?

[Vinyl Rules!]

Originally Posted by Lotus

Vinyl,

NPD's recent release of their studies show that 70% of HDTV owners have no plans of buying HDM at any time no matter who wins the format war.

That right there shows your POV is correct.

Lotus,

I'm NOT posting this because you agree with me.

I'm simply agreeing with what you are saying because it is consistent with all the proprietary research I've done for a few clients.

And I whilst I cannot reveal the exact number I've come up with (client confidentialty, etc.), I can tell you that your 70% is low.

What is amazing to me is the number of people in the hi-rez DVD industry who think there is actuallly money to be made from selling hi-rez DVD aluminum discs.

I show them the research data, but they refuse to believe it because they (or their bosses) are so personally invested in a particular hardware format. And they do not understand the competition from broadband VOD like Verison's FIOS, etc. I suspect some of them will use the word "fries" in their next job that actually pays them something.

Like I said, they are riding the Titanic to the Atlantic sea bottom, and they DO NOT want to hear this.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by Vinyl Rules!

And I whilst I cannot reveal the exact number I've come up with (client confidentialty, etc.), I can tell you that your 70% is low.

It all depends on the number of people questioned. NPD claimed to have asked tens of thousands of recent HDTV purchasers. Which means their number may or may not be more accurate than yours depending upon the pool of people questioned.

I figure 25% is about right and is large enough of a market for HDM to do well. It's already more popular than LD.

[Vinyl Rules!]

Originally Posted by Lotus

It all depends on the number of people questioned. NPD claimed to have asked tens of thousands of recent HDTV purchasers. Which means their number may or may not be more accurate than yours depending upon the pool of people questioned.

I figure 25% is about right and is large enough of a market for HDM to do well. It's already more popular than LD.

Did you ever hear the joke about the statistician who drowned in a lake with an average depth of only 1"? He stepped into the only 10' deep hole in the lake bed.

The number of people sampled becomes irrelevant once you have a sample size that is STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT at either a 95% confidence level or a 99% confidence level.

Once you have a statistically significant sample, the wording of the question and the understanding of precisely what is being asked becomes VERY, VERY important.

The other really important research tool that is also often overlooked is recruitment of research participants from an audience who are good prospects for your product or service. I note this because a good friend of mine who is a vegetarian was recently recruited by NPD for a study they were doing for a large chain of steak houses (Can you say Ruth?): He was NOT EXCLUDED from their survey even after he told them he was a vegetarian. But he did tell them he would eat TOFU steaks, so I guess that "qualified" him for the study.

It's always about the numbers with the big research firms. It is becoming more difficult and more costly to find willing research participants because they either hang up on you when you call them, or they avoid you in the big malls when you try and get them to stop and answer a few questions.

My point here is most of the large research companies now have such a problem getting to that statistically significant sample size they have lowered the requirements for being part of the sample and their client is usually not aware of this.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by Vinyl Rules!

My point here is most of the large research companies now have such a problem getting to that statistically significant sample size they have lowered the requirements for being part of the sample and their client is usually not aware of this.

That may be but in this case the questionaire went out with HDTVs that were sold by Best Buy, Sam's Club, and Amazon.com if I read the report right.

That means the target should have been right on.

[Vinyl Rules!]

Originally Posted by Lotus

That may be but in this case the questionaire went out with HDTVs that were sold by Best Buy, Sam's Club, and Amazon.com if I read the report right.

That means the target should have been right on.

Yes, the target audience was excellent, but mail-survey research suffers the most from what is coined "non-respondent" bias: You don't know what responses you would have gotten from those who chose not to respond.There have been countless studies documenting that if you follow up with the non-respondents and get them to participate, their participation can sometimes have a HUGE effect on the final report to the client.

Good research companies overcome the non-respondent bias effect in phone survey research and in face-to-face mall-intercept research by offering a higher incentive to the people who initially say "no" once they reach a certain threshold of people declining to participate.

NPD does not do this nor can they overcome non-respondent bias when they are dependent upon the purchaser of the HDTV to answer a few questions on the warranty card (this is how they generally collect the information): They have no way to track and follow-up with those who did not return the warranty card, and they do not follow-up with those who do return the cards but did not answer the research questions on the card.

And none of the retailers make their customer data base available to NPD so NPD can "mine" it and cross-reference the ones who made an HDTV purchase against the returned warranty cards.

I do not foresee this happening because (1) The retailers consider this data proprietary and will never turn it over to NPD; and (2) Even if they did turn it over to NPD, the database mining would add too much to the cost and NPD would price themselves out of the market.

There are no shortcuts in conducting good marketing research: Too many companies who are in the research business only give lip-service to providing good research to CE companies.

Why? Because they know they are dealing with CE marketing professionals who don't have the superb skill sets of their peers at the top-shelf CPG (Consumer Packaged Goods) companies like Proctor & Gamble and Pepsico. And the CE companies are not willing to pay for good research like the CPG companies because the CE companies do not understand just how valuable really good research can be.

[DaViD Boulet]

a poll taken a year from now will yield different results. A poll taken 2-3 years from now will reveal even more different results.