Could Warner Bros. Abandon HD DVD in 2008?

[DaViD Boulet]

This is a business and Onkyo, Integra, and Meridian would not be in the process of releasing HD DVD players if there was no way to make money doing so. It doesn't make sense, and for the record many other high end brands are hoping that HD DVD does well this quarter so they can release HD DVD players. Why would they want that over BD?

Hmmm. HD DVD hardware must be so profitable that so far no major manufacturer other than Toshiba has yet produced a player. And these brands that you tout here not only have yet to bring their theoretical players to market, but when they do so, they'll most likely be high-end units that can set their own (expensive) price based on brand-loyalty and perceived quality (ie, follow the same price path as typical BD units). I doubt that Meridian player will come in at your magic $199 price point.

Were your statements about the profitability of current Toshiba hardware prices true, why hasn't any other major manufacturer released any HD DVD hardware at this time? It's been how many product generations now?

No. You twist statements to try and prove a point. Pointing out that Sony didn't adopt a "consumer first," approach like their competition (even in BD) did is not showing "disdain."

You said they weren't authoring using advanced codecs like other studios. They are, and have been ever since their initial handful of (criticized) MPEG2 titles. Sony's motivation for improving their product is worth discussion, but it doesn't change the fact that they are indeed setting the standard for proper disc authoring at this time.

Low costs just lead to sales. If BD cost $98 this past weekend, they'd have sold out too. Even $199 A3s were soldout. Even the MS link you mentioned showed that COST is winning out in the console market too. The Wii is winning, the 360 is second, and the PS3 is third and extremely far behind projected sales.

Cost is certainly a factor. But it's not the only factor. If it was, then BD wouldn't be outselling HD DVD as it is currently. We'll just have to see how much price affects those numbers this Holiday season.

And regarding these out-of-context comparisons with these three game consoles... the Wii gets points for having invented a revolutionary new type of game controller/game-play paradigm that even gets grandma into the game. Software seems to have a much bigger impact on 360 and PS3 competition than pricing... according to gamers on just about any board. Trying to reduce these three products to mere "pricing" isn't an accurate reflection of the gamete of consumer motivations going on with these three game-systems. Just because it's convenient for Microsoft to suggest that the sales figures are a simple reflection of price doesn't make it so.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet

You said they weren't authoring using advanced codecs like other studios. They are, and have been ever since their initial handful of (criticized) MPEG2 titles. Sony's motivation for improving their product is worth discussion, but it doesn't change the fact that they are indeed setting the standard for proper disc authoring at this time.

This here proves my point. You refuse to actually accept facts, and instead distort them. When was the first Sony AVC title?

Trying to discuss things with someone who obviously has no interest in facts or an inability to understand them is pointless.

[gstarr]

If Warner Bros. eventually does go with Blu Ray solely in late 2008, that might be damn close to a death knell for Toshiba in HD. Between Sony's huge music and mivies catalogue and Warners, they control an enormous amount of software.

So far the sales of HD and Blu Ray players, whether stand alone or for games are miniscule in comparison to dvd players --maybe 2-4% of the market. The movies that are sold in each format are about 5% or less than their dvd counterparts.

The bottom line price of the player is only one small factor in entering the HD viewing experience for the consumer. I know many people that own over 300-500 dvd's (myself being one of them). So far the price of HD movie software seems to be about $5 and sometimes more than the BD software. Unless both formats lower their software prices to within $5 and on extraordinary releases within $10 of the basic dvd format, neither will be a huge success. Most people don't even now how to dial in their HDTV's properly and a miniscule amount buy great enough sets that are 50" to 70" to make an improperly adjusted set create a huge quality difference. How many people actually hire an ISF tech to perfect their Pioneer and Panny plasma;s and their 52" Sony, Sharp,and Samsung LCD's.

And in the not too distant future most computers will be capable of having FIOS and other screaming speed downloads in comparable high definition viewing and audio--if not better.

When people say look what happened to Sony with Betamax, they fail to realize that Toshiba is more in the Betamax mode now, as they are currently the sole provider of HD dvd players. Pioneer, Pioneer Elite, Samsung, Denon, Panasonic, LG (which will be marketting combo players), Sony, etc. The race for technology advantages by all these big companies may well yield some very interesting features and performance on the video and audio front.

Who knows, we may end up with a bifurcated format system, with Toshiba and the Chinese HD knock-offs commanding the low end and Blu Ray commanding the mid-end to high end. Just a guess.

It is still far too early for anyone, other than the severely biased, to make a very intelligent guess about the future, when so much is in flux.

Greg

[DaViD Boulet]

This here proves my point. You refuse to actually accept facts, and instead distort them. When was the first Sony AVC title?

Trying to discuss things with someone who obviously has no interest in facts or an inability to understand them is pointless.

Your motivation for debate along this point is confusing. The first Sony title to use AVC was Open Season released January 2007. Almost every BD title from sony since then has been compressed with the AVC codec. They even reissued the Fifth Element with a new transfer, AVC-compressed, and with Dolby TrueHD audio.

And even before they moved to AVC, they improved their transfers/compression dramatically with their MPEG2 discs that followed their first wave of really *bad* Blu-ray Discs that we all agree were atrocious. Even MPEG2 is fine given good source material, optimal film-to-digital transfer methodology, and enough breathing room with bit-rate.

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by Lotus

No we don't. Because you're making it sound like BD will be competively priced SOON. While HD DVD is getting cheaper, BD is not. There are only three facilities in the world currently capable of making BD 50 discs and their prices are not cheap. They've been subsidizing costs for studios from the get go. Guess who owns those three facilities?

Please lets stop the misinformation right here. The Panasonic PDMC factory in Torrence, CA does BD50 discs and has replicated many of them for Fox and Disney.

In addition to the three SonyDADC factories there are BD50 replication factories up and running from Technicolor, Panasonic and Cinram and Infodiscs is getting up and running right now.

There are 11 factories with BD25 replication status with 3 more about to start-up as well in Russia, Laser-Video Multimedia and Quantum Optical Laboratories (QOL)

Don't accuse other people of "lying" when you're doing it yourself.

PS - in 2007 75% of Blu-ray Discs released have NOT used MPEG-2.

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by Lotus

$149 is $150 less than $299. Perhaps the unit will price at $249 since the Spring is a long way away. However that's still $100. It doesn't change the basic facts that HD DVD is much cheaper than BD.

No, Toshiba's players are much cheaper. Onkyo's first player is to list at $899 and when you look at the $999 list price of the dual format players it doesn't take a Maths whiz to see that Toshiba's current players are subsidized and smack of desperation.