Could Warner Bros. Abandon HD DVD in 2008?

[GizmoDVD]

Originally Posted by Bob Black

Suffice it to say, however, that anyone looking at the PQ rankings with an unbiased eye can see that the BD studios have benefited greatly in your tier list due to their lack of older releases. Sony is so 2006/2007-heavy on titles that it isn't even funny!

Clearly that does not matter. Its all about the ratios (in this case for Blu-ray) vs anything else.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by dobyblue

I do not agree that the war will end at CES either, but I do believe that by Summer 2008 Warner will be releasing on one format and if it's Blu-ray that the retailers will be quick to remove HD DVD from their shelves.

When something like that happens at Best Buy, Wal*Mart, Circuit City, etc., it will hasten the end of the war very quickly.

If Warner chooses HD DVD and drops Blu-ray, it will throw a massive wrench into the format war ever ending as which format will the retailers choose? You know they have a LOT of pull in this thing should they make a move to only stock one format or the other, but with major studio's split 50/50 a niche market is guaranteed and I believe you would see the HDM sections disappearing from view and perhaps altogether at smaller stores.

If Warner picked HD DVD and Disney went neutral, I believe Fox would not be far behind and then the retailers would remove Blu-ray from their stores, forcing Sony to support HD DVD as well, which if anyone thinks they would not do (I've seen so many posts incorrectly stating that it would be a cold day in hell before Sony supports HD DVD or Universal supporting BLu-ray - they WILL go where the winning format goes) is sorely fooling themselves.

Why would retail stores pull stuff that sells? I used to see LaserDiscs at major retailers well after it was dead (although not Best Buy or Wal-Mart). The only reason BlockBuster chose a side was they were given a financial incentive to do so. Even BlockBuster is considering adding HD DVD once the moratorium is over.

A very real possibility is a "Two Format Future." This is where Warners stays neutral but is joined by Disney. As you said FOX would not be far behind. It wouldn't take too long before MGM, LGF, Paramount, and Dreamworks joined them. Then as you said Universal and Sony would finally pony up and also go neutral.

Lets be honest that route is the best for consumers as well. A competitive market place means better deals. Also all early adopters would be safe with their choice.

The PS3 pretty much guaranteed that there would be a market for BD movies for a long time.

The current growth of HD DVD is getting to the point of guaranteeing that as well.

BD needs Warner to go BD exclusive QUICKLY or HD DVD will continue to gain steam and summer 2008 would be too late. Each week that passes that Warners hasn't made a deal is not good news for BD. In fact if they don't make a deal very quickly Warners may decide to wait this out as a neutral party for awhile longer.

Which is honestly the best business choice they could make. I think BD is healthy and HD DVD is very quickly approaching it.

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by Lotus

Lets be honest that route is the best for consumers as well. A competitive market place means better deals. Also all early adopters would be safe with their choice.

The PS3 pretty much guaranteed that there would be a market for BD movies for a long time.

The current growth of HD DVD is getting to the point of guaranteeing that as well.

I disagree - one million pieces of compatible hardware in 20 months is no good.

I also disagree that a dual format marketplace is good for consumers - it never has been, nor will it ever.

If sales remain as they are 16 months from now you will see studios starting to lose interest in creating HDM content and Microsoft will have thier way as they pay more and more money for studios to release downloadable HD content exclusively through their providing system.

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by Lotus

Why would retail stores pull stuff that sells?

It doesn't sell. You can't laugh at HDM vs. DVD numbers and then in the same 24 hour period suggest that "it sells"

[GizmoDVD]

Originally Posted by dobyblue

I disagree - one million pieces of compatible hardware in 20 months is no good.

Great, because only 200k Blu-ray SA have been sold.

Time to pull all of those in-compatible things now!

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by Bob Black

Universal has released the following: The Sting (1973), The Jerk (1980), Monty Python's The Meaning Of Life (1983), The River (1984), Streets Of Fire (1984), The Last Starfighter (1985), Midnight Run (1988), Born On the 4th Of July (1989), Sea Of Love (1989), Scent Of A Woman (1990), Darkman (1990), Sneakers (1992), American Me (1992), Carlito's Way (1993), The War (1994), What Dreams May Come (1994), The Getaway (1994), Mallrats (1995), Billy Madison (1995), The Frighteners (1996), Dragonheart (1996), Daylight (1996), The Nutty Professor (1996), Dante's Peak (1997), The Game (1997), Liar Liar (1997), Patch Adams (1998), Mercury Rising (1998), Half-Baked (1998), The Big Lebowski (1998), Meet Joe Black (1998), Elizabeth (1998), Mystery Men (1999), The Watcher (1999), Being John Malkovich (1999), Bulletprrof (1999), Notting Hill (1999)

This was up-to-date as of a couple of months ago when I compiled this data. At that time, Universal's releases included 37 releases between 2000 and the present, and 37 releases that are from the 70's, 80's and 90's. As you might suspect, the average rating in PQ was considerably higher for recent films, with a 3.824 average for 2000 - 2007 films.

Contrast this with Disney that had two older catalog titles that I counted (Dinosaur and GI Jane - both from the 90's) and FOX which had 10 (Courage Under Fire, Rocky, Speed, Usual Suspects, Entrapment, Broken Arrow, Chain Reaction, Hoosiers, Robocop (remastered), Edward Scissorhands. Sony also had very few, but I have to go right now and can't post all the data. I will finish later.

Suffice it to say, however, that anyone looking at the PQ rankings with an unbiased eye can see that the BD studios have benefited greatly in your tier list due to their lack of older releases. Sony is so 2006/2007-heavy on titles that it isn't even funny!

Wait a minute, are you comparing review totals from only one site? Does Universal only have one title from the 70's? Is that the earliest they go back?

Warner have released the following:

Adventures of Robin Hood (1939)
Casablanca (1942)
Battle of the Bulge (1965)
Bullitt (1968)
Forbidden Planet (1956)
Grand Prix (1966)
Jailhouse Rock (1957)
Mutiny on the Bounty (1962)
Rio Bravo (1959)
Spartacus (1960)
The Dirty Dozen (1967)
The Graduate (1967)
The Searchers (1956)
Viva Las Vegas (1963)
Wild Bunch (1969)

How can Warner with much older catalogue titles put Universal to shame!!! This is without even including all the Warner movies from the 70's and 80's keep in mind!

Not much of an excuse in my book, but defend Universal's mediocrity if you must. Me personally, I'd still have to buy Last Starfighter if it came out on Blu-ray even with a 2-star transfer.

There are no "tiers" in my spreadsheet, it's simple averages, nothing more. If the numbers offend your tender sensibilities that is none of my concern.