Could Warner Bros. Abandon HD DVD in 2008?

[PRO-630HD]

Originally Posted by dobyblue

They have never said they were the only ones doing BD50's and they never stated 30-40%.
Over a year ago they were claiming 79% on BD50's.
I will look up the link in the morning - my new fiancee will kill me if I post anymore anywhere tonight.

Bluray BD-50 yields were never 79% last year. BD-25 yields are barely over 80% now. BD-50 yields at non Sony plants is around 10% even though Sony will never admit that. This article from Ultimate AV mag shows more of Sony's spin.

More Spin in Next-Gen Disc War

Posted Fri Oct 5, 2007, 1:28 PM ET — By Shane Buettner

The advent of Blu-ray and HD DVD isn't the first time I've covered a format launch- DVD was still pretty fresh and new when I started in this biz in the late 90s. Things have changed a lot since then, especially in the way that the PR machines are operating and interacting with the online community. And what better evidence of that is there than the fact that esoteric technical details like "yield rates" and "cycle times" are a frequent water cooler topic among the uninitiated?
For those who don't frequent these areas of the various forums out there, yield rates refer to the percentage of properly working discs out of a run, or batch of replicated discs. The higher the yield percentages, the better the profitability. Cycle times refer to how long it takes to replicate a single disc.

Of particular interest here, it's claimed by Blu-ray's detractors that yields of 50GB dual-layer discs are low, and that the cycle times are ridiculously long. Therefore, according to these rumors, those discs are very inefficient end thus expensive to produce. Further, rumors persist that getting yields as high as they are requires staying well under the 50GB capacity limit. This is a big deal because Blu-ray's main story vs. HD DVD is higher disc capacity.

HD DVD's side of this equation is the opposite. From the get-go HD DVD has claimed as one of its strengths its similarity to the DVD format, which makes replication cheaper, faster and easier. Yields are claimed to be in the mid-to-high 90s, and it's also been claimed that dual-layer HD DVD discs cost far less to produce than 50GB BDs. All of which is admittedly very difficult to qualify or verify in any meaningful way.

Nevertheless, I'm guessing that there might be some truth to this given that the Blu-ray PR machine actually felt the need to speak to the press about its replication prowess. Kinda like boxing- you never see a guy mock that the other didn't hurt him unless he actually did get buzzed at least a little.

Sony's disc replication facility itself put the word out this week that it's produced its 10 millionth 50GB Blu-ray Disc, that yields are improving and even approaching that of standard DVD, and cycle times are also improving, i.e., getting faster. But one thing the people responsible for releasing this information didn't count on is the David Vaughn factor.

Vaughn is kind of the new guy around here, and he's just immersed in all things format war. Dude has his ear to the ground on this stuff.

So, this week a Sony DADC exec is quoted in Video Business as saying that BD50 yields "have increased steadily and are consistently between 75% and 79%." Dave emails and says, "hey wait a minute...", and then digs up an article from Consumer Electronics Daily from October of 2006 that quotes a Sony exec as saying that "yields are averaging 80% on single-layer 25GB media," while 50GB yields were then "ever so slightly less."

So, the question Dave asked me is, if yields are steadily increasing as production ramps, why, according to Sony's own numbers, are the yields still so suspiciously similar a full year later? Were the numbers last year actually much lower than claimed? Are the numbers this year still inflated or on the money? Should we care?

I don't know how much any of this will or won't matter. But Paramount went exclusively HD DVD, and Paramount's CTO Alan Bell looked me in the eye and stated that he recommended this path in part because he believed HD DVD replication was more viable as the format moves into mainstream production numbers. Rumors are persisting that Warner, the remaining dual-format major studio is approaching a moment of decision. So perhaps this isn't the last we'll hear of this.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by PRO-630HD

PENTON MAN would not post anything of the sort as he PRO Bluray.

Of course he is. Look who he works for. I know he isn't public about it but you can figure it out if you read his recent posts about a future title.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by 1more4HDDVD

Please don’t take this the wrong way, I’m not trying to tell you what you can and can’t talk about on this thread, I just think it’s past that stage already. I think the questions now are: “What will happen to my side if we lose Warner?” and “What will happen to my side if we get Warner exclusive?” Because chances are good that we are all going to be faced with one of those two questions by this time next week.

Well if it means anything MS is signing Warners and New Line to their Live Service in a long term contract. Warners has long been the biggest content provider on Live. It may be the quickest place to get LOTR in HD (720p).

The BD Insiders have been saying that the HD-DVD deal was tied to a Live deal. Warners is making a Live deal.

Does it mean they chose HD DVD?

I personally don't think the two were combined as they've always had their own contracts.

Maybe it means that MS will throw their money into the pot. The amounts I'm hearing make the combined Paramount/Dreamworks deal look small.

Of course these are all rumors, but the WB Live deal appears to be happening.

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by PRO-630HD

Doby you were banned from the highdefdigest forums? How That is an extremely liberal forum! What in the hell do you have to do to get banned from there?

It's not a liberal forum as well - I didn't post there any differently than the other numerous forums that I'm not banned from.

I did allow myself to be baited into heated responses by people who purposely neglected to respond to any facts at all but simply trolled away; I have learnt my lesson and no longer respond to those sort of fools.

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by Lotus

Of course he is. Look who he works for. I know he isn't public about it but you can figure it out if you read his recent posts about a future title.

You're suggesting he works for Sony Pictures; how then was he the first person to mention the Paramount situation the evening before it happened?

[GizmoDVD]

Is this a done deal? I have not heard anything on this, but this does bode well for HD DVD in every way.

Originally Posted by Lotus

Well if it means anything MS is signing Warners and New Line to their Live Service in a long term contract. Warners has long been the biggest content provider on Live. It may be the quickest place to get LOTR in HD (720p).

The BD Insiders have been saying that the HD-DVD deal was tied to a Live deal. Warners is making a Live deal.

Does it mean they chose HD DVD?

I personally don't think the two were combined as they've always had their own contracts.

Maybe it means that MS will throw their money into the pot. The amounts I'm hearing make the combined Paramount/Dreamworks deal look small.

Of course these are all rumors, but the WB Live deal appears to be happening.