Could Warner Bros. Abandon HD DVD in 2008?

[phirsch1939]

I hope not. WB is one of my favorite studios and I purchased a Toshiba HD player (after comparing against BR players to upscale a brand new copy of "Zathura" on DVD). To my eyes and ears, the second generation Toshiba A20 produced better video and audio than either the second generation Sony S300 or Samsung 1200 players, using the same HDMI cables.

Because of the HD player, I have purchased 38 new HD and DVD discs. Eighteen (18) of these are WB titles.

While many consumers prefer BR, many others prefer HD. It seems that savvy companies would provide software for both formats. With Wal*Mart selling HD A2 players for less than $100 and HD discs for $14.95, and Circuit City selling HD discs for $13.95, HD prices are becoming mainstream. And . . . Toshiba's 5 free HD discs promotion applies to all models. That means the HD A2 was essentially free this past Friday and Saturday.

HD appears to be moving mainstream as rapidly as possible. I would think the studios would want to be there when that happens.

[gstarr]

I am sure both HD & Blu Ray will still be boxing it out,at least in the near future. While the immediate advantage isn't with Blu Ray on price, the big advantage is that so many high level manufacturers are making Blu Rays and the probablility of bigger break throughs with Denon, Pioneer & Pioneer Elite, Sony, Samsung, Panasonic, Philips, etc. While LG and Samsung are working on dual players, thre aren't a lot of HD manufacturers besides Toshiba, except the Chinese that are likely to do HD knock-offs on the cheap, as they already have the machinery for it.

Of course, when FIOS and other ultra hi speed downloads are available and possibly recordable, who knows what will happen. The advantage of Sony's Blu Ray is that Sony owns a sizeable music and movie catalogue and Toshiba has no catalogue. Toshiba has to depend a lot on Microsoft and any company that has done business with Mr. Softy knows it can be worse than sleeping with a herd of elephants.

Greg

[deacongreg]

Originally Posted by kennyt

deacongreg,

I got my PS3 hooked up, I haven't connected it to my home network yet, but did find one interesting thing that brings up an issue as to why the PS3 is the most reliable..

OK, yes, it connects to wired or wireless networks and downloads the firmware on it's own. Super cool, but every time you put in a new game (I have only tried two so far) the game discs have the firmware needed to run that game, and if it is more current than what your player has, it does the firmware update then. Since this is a proprietary system, Sony knows every disc is only going into one of it'd players and can do this. The studios have no way of knowing who's player their films will go into so it has to be from another source.

I am very glad to hear these latest price breaks are getting people to finally come off the fence and buy into these new formats! It's about time guys! I am on my fifth Blu-ray player already and second HD DVD (I bought the HD XA2 and it's still their best so no need to replace it yet....)

That is excellent news. Great for the PS3. Firmware automatically loading up. Plain and simple. Can`t wait to hear how the audio sounds thru the Levinsons. Now, just waiting a little bit to see if there will be a further price drop, on the XA2. Since the newer Toshiba models are coming.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet

The BD disc structure is "better" for all reasons except initial production costs. Those initial production costs are temporary, but HD DVD's physical structure limitations are permanent. One could just as easily say it was WB who wouldn't merge with Sony, who was willing to adopt (and in fact did) most of the software technologies that had advantages with HD DVD.

They aren't temporary. HD DVD will remain cheaper to produce, and in fact is MUCH cheaper to produce currently especially on the hardware side. It's possible to make players for around $90. The production costs for BD hardware are still about 4 times as much. There will not be a drop in the near future.

Sony also hasn't adopted much of anything, it's the other BD studios adopting VC1, etc.

The price difference between HD DVD and BD hardware is not a function of manufacturing/production costs. It's a matter of what certain manufacturers are willing to lose to try to gain market share. The price difference between production is closing and will continue to do so with BD replication volume, just like DVD replication costs fell over time.

No, it's a MAJOR difference in technology. You see for BD discs to be read lasers have to obtain certain angles, the cost of making a laser array that can read the discs is currently over 8 times as expensive as the laser packages that HD DVD uses. This is not changing anytime soon.

There is a reason that a $149 initial MSRP player for HD DVD is on the very near horizon, and BD isn't looking to be near that anytime soon.

Production costs may well drop over time, but not in the near future. Disc replication costs are still much more expensive (twice as much) as HD DVD. This means that HD DVDs with MSRP of $14.99 will be available far sooner than BD. In fact don't be shocked if Universal and WB announce $14.99 prices around Black Friday.

Really? Not what seems likely given "watching fouth quarter sales" considering the ever increasing ratio of BD to HD DVD sales.

I suspect I'm talking to someone who has "chosen a side," and that side is BD. Facts are these, the sales numbers for BD are not considered as healthy as HD DVD. With around 15 times as many players in homes, BD only has a 2 to 1 advantage. That number in fact is not increasing. This past weekend HD DVD saw a huge boost to its in home figures. If software sales remain strong with the new buyers, they should start catching back up to BD sales figures.

BD has more studios than HD DVD. When $ per studio is averaged out, the numbers aren't that different. Warners has ties to the HD DVD camp that they don't have with BD. If they are considering going towards one side, it's HD DVD.

Toshiba has already stated that current HD DVD hardware might not be compatible with 3-layer HD DVD discs. Not to mention no reliable production of 3-layer HD DVD has been demonstrated, and even if yields are managable, it will certainly cost more than standard dual-layer HD DVD given the need for new replication lines (remember how new replication lines were one of the reasons BD costs more? Is HD DVD immune?)

Care to back that up with data?

Toshiba never said such a thing. You see a disc is either readable or not. Since the disc was aproved to go into production by the Forum, they've obviously tested it. It either works or it doesn't. So why would they say it might not? I spoke with a Toshiba rep today who told me "to my knowledge they work fine."

This sounds just like the HD DVD "supporters," who said the same thing about dual layered BD discs.

New replication lines aren't needed, and the updates to the lines for the triple layer discs isn't as expensive as updating the DVD lines to make HD DVD discs (they used the same lines a huge reason costs are so much lower).

Disney told the HD DVD people that 30GB wasn't enough, and for them to "consider," going neutral that they must match the 50GB storage capactiy. The 51GB discs do that, and yes they have already managed reliable production. Costs ARE more expensive, but still less expensive than a dual layer BD disc. By updating the lines, they also allow a 34GB dual layer disc to be made.

50GB is the magic number for having a great picture, sound, and extras. While BD can try and release 75GB and 100GB discs the fact remains that all that would provide is more room for extras, or more "episodes," in TV compilation packages to be on a disc. HD DVD reaching that 50GB number is important.

Were Warner to go HD DVD exlusive it would stale-mate the war and both HD disc media efforts would die a slow death as mass consumer adoption of either format would never be obtained. Then Microsoft would have achieved their goal of preparing a market ripe for downloading HD media... along with a VC1 codec that they own that both disc types helped establish as a new industry norm.

Not exactly. Warner abandoning BD would show:

The SECOND major studio to "leave," BD. The spin of that would affect consumer buying decisions. It would make it much easier for the average consumer to justify the purchase of HD DVD knowing it will cost them much less than a BD player.

$149 players in Wal-Mart combined with an "even," studio split would propel sales and yes eventually lead to Disney going neutral, which would signify the end to the war because FOX won't be far behind Disney.

As for MS achieving their goal.....

You're making things up. MS wants HD DVD to win. That is the MS goal. They want downloadable media as well, but their primary HD goal is for HD DVD to win.

I'm neutral. I'm neither a supporter of HD DVD or BD.

The ONLY thing I see BD going for it is Studio Support. Picture, Sound, etc. are identical. Yet HD DVD is less expensive to buy. If anything I'm mad that FOX, DISNEY, etc. are forcing consumers to spend more money for the same quality for no reason other than greed.

I'd feel the same way if the roles were reversed.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by TheMoose

HD-DVD supporters always point to cheaper players & the fact that HD-DVD has sold more standalone players & they say the PS3 isn't a factor.
How do they explain the fact that Blu-Ray is out selling HD-DVD in software (Movies) almost 2 to 1?
Warner could care less if there are more HD-DVD standalone players out there if Blu-Ray is selling more movies.

Also David I do remember reading it was Sony that tried to end the war before it started, I don't remember where I read it though since it was around 2 years ago.

The worst thing that could happen is a stalemate that gives Micro$oft the opportunity to sell everyone on bad compressed downloads instead of discs, believe me no one wants that!!

In 2004 Toshiba tried to get Sony to join the HD DVD group, and "combine," specs. Nothing happened.

In 2005 Sony tried to get Toshiba to adopt BD and call it "HD DVD," knowing the name would mean something.

One month after HD DVD and BD players were on shelves, and the media had noticed that BD wasn't really offering anything better, Toshiba offered an Olive Branch again...

September 2007, Sony offers Toshiba to join the BD camp.

The worst thing that could happen is for people to believe in conspiracy theories about MS wanting downloads over HD DVD. MS wants BOTH, and believe me they want HD DVD to win, and are pouring money into it.

The "talks," that made the most "sense," were the Toshiba talks to use HD DVD technology as far as the lasers were concerned and replication. Increase bandwidth capabilities, etc.

The ONLY thing BD has that is superior is bandwidth. That's it.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by kennyt

deacongreg,

I got my PS3 hooked up, I haven't connected it to my home network yet, but did find one interesting thing that brings up an issue as to why the PS3 is the most reliable..

OK, yes, it connects to wired or wireless networks and downloads the firmware on it's own. Super cool, but every time you put in a new game (I have only tried two so far) the game discs have the firmware needed to run that game, and if it is more current than what your player has, it does the firmware update then. Since this is a proprietary system, Sony knows every disc is only going into one of it'd players and can do this. The studios have no way of knowing who's player their films will go into so it has to be from another source.

I am very glad to hear these latest price breaks are getting people to finally come off the fence and buy into these new formats! It's about time guys! I am on my fifth Blu-ray player already and second HD DVD (I bought the HD XA2 and it's still their best so no need to replace it yet....)

The 360 is the same way with it's addon. If you're connected to the network, it will download the update, or the update may be on a game, etc.

The player I'm most interested in is the Samsung Combo player... I will buy that if the price can drop down to around $700.