Could Warner Bros. Abandon HD DVD in 2008?

[kennyt]

deacongreg,

I got my PS3 hooked up, I haven't connected it to my home network yet, but did find one interesting thing that brings up an issue as to why the PS3 is the most reliable..

OK, yes, it connects to wired or wireless networks and downloads the firmware on it's own. Super cool, but every time you put in a new game (I have only tried two so far) the game discs have the firmware needed to run that game, and if it is more current than what your player has, it does the firmware update then. Since this is a proprietary system, Sony knows every disc is only going into one of it'd players and can do this. The studios have no way of knowing who's player their films will go into so it has to be from another source.

I am very glad to hear these latest price breaks are getting people to finally come off the fence and buy into these new formats! It's about time guys! I am on my fifth Blu-ray player already and second HD DVD (I bought the HD XA2 and it's still their best so no need to replace it yet....)

[DaViD Boulet]

As for TheMoose and his claim that SONY approached Toshiba, that is untrue. It was Toshibe who approached Sony and tried to "combine," the best of both worlds. Sony was the company that wasn't willing to do what was best for consumers:

HD-DVD discs, HD-DVD lasers, BD cp, BD bandwidth, and push "triple layer," HD-DVD development.

The BD disc structure is "better" for all reasons except initial production costs. Those initial production costs are temporary, but HD DVD's physical structure limitations are permanent. One could just as easily say it was WB who wouldn't merge with Sony, who was willing to adopt (and in fact did) most of the software technologies that had advantages with HD DVD.

HD-DVD is STILL less expensive to manufacture in both discs and hardware. There will be $149 Magnavox HD-DVD players at Wal-Mart soon. The least expensive BD player is $399.

The price difference between HD DVD and BD hardware is not a function of manufacturing/production costs. It's a matter of what certain manufacturers are willing to lose to try to gain market share. The price difference between production is closing and will continue to do so with BD replication volume, just like DVD replication costs fell over time.

Warner and New Line will be thinking about going strictly towards one camp. *IF* they do pick, it won't be BD.

Really? Not what seems likely given "watching fouth quarter sales" considering the ever increasing ratio of BD to HD DVD sales.

With the 51GB HD-DVD discs coming, and the attachment rates of HD-DVD players, Warners is hoping that the less expensive players FINALLY sell in larger numbers. If 1M HD-DVD players are available to sell to in January, they will go HD-DVD only, but I don't see that number being reached.

Toshiba has already stated that current HD DVD hardware might not be compatible with 3-layer HD DVD discs. Not to mention no reliable production of 3-layer HD DVD has been demonstrated, and even if yields are managable, it will certainly cost more than standard dual-layer HD DVD given the need for new replication lines (remember how new replication lines were one of the reasons BD costs more? Is HD DVD immune?)

Which is a shame, because if Warners went HD-DVD only, this war would end sooner, and cost consumers less money.

Were Warner to go HD DVD exlusive it would stale-mate the war and both HD disc media efforts would die a slow death as mass consumer adoption of either format would never be obtained. Then Microsoft would have achieved their goal of preparing a market ripe for downloading HD media... along with a VC1 codec that they own that both disc types helped establish as a new industry norm.

[David DelGrosso]

Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet

The BD disc structure is "better" for all reasons except initial production costs. Those initial production costs are temporary, but HD DVD's physical structure limitations are permanent.

With the utmost in respect for enthusiastic HD-DVD loyalists, I must agree that the BD format has greater long-term value... especially as a "single format" for a wide variety of future consumer, pro AND commercial "disc-based" applications and products.

The price difference between HD DVD and BD hardware is not a function of manufacturing/production costs. It's a matter of what certain manufacturers are willing to lose to try to gain market share.

This is also a significant "piece to the puzzle", for those who are concerned about long-term value (-vs- instant gratification.)

But few people even talk about this distinction... as mass media visionaries continue to wave the old "cheaper is better for the masses" flag.

The Blu-ray Group has often been wrongfully accused of trying to extract higher profit dollars from every player. But they have also known all along, that they would steadily be upgrading into more advanced Profiles, during the first two years... so they have intentionally avoided the "price wars", so that they could sensibly synchronize the market demand to the product plan.

Were Warner to go HD DVD exclusive it would stale-mate the war and both HD disc media efforts would die a slow death as mass consumer adoption of either format would never be obtained. Then Microsoft would have achieved their goal of preparing a market ripe for downloading HD media... along with a VC1 codec that they own that both disc types helped establish as a new industry norm.

I am not up on latest "bandwidth" challenges. How soon will the Internet be expanding to accommodate tons of HD downloads? Or will the future include advanced "zip and unzip" technologies?

DD

[The Elite A/VPhile]

Toshiba was the company that started the HD DVD war and I think their will be more of them sold as everyone else says"they are cheaper". When HD DVD and Blu-ray are displayed on the same HDTV there is no difference. It is impossible for the human eye to notice the difference. Especially when they are both 1080p and it depends on the quality and resolution of your monitor. I like the Toshiba HD-A20. It's 1080p, simple to use and has phenomenal picture and sound quality with PCM. Why spend a ton of $ when you do not need too. When it comes down to it go with HD DVD, but then again consumers are seeing what they're hearing from other consumers. They do not have a mind of their own nor eyes. It's up to your eyes and ears not someone elses. 1080p is 1080p! It's your monitor that makes it look as good as it does not just the player alone.

[TheMoose]

HD-DVD supporters always point to cheaper players & the fact that HD-DVD has sold more standalone players & they say the PS3 isn't a factor.
How do they explain the fact that Blu-Ray is out selling HD-DVD in software (Movies) almost 2 to 1?
Warner could care less if there are more HD-DVD standalone players out there if Blu-Ray is selling more movies.

Also David I do remember reading it was Sony that tried to end the war before it started, I don't remember where I read it though since it was around 2 years ago.

The worst thing that could happen is a stalemate that gives Micro$oft the opportunity to sell everyone on bad compressed downloads instead of discs, believe me no one wants that!!

[DaViD Boulet]

Also David I do remember reading it was Sony that tried to end the war before it started, I don't remember where I read it though since it was around 2 years ago.

You are correct according to my memory as well. Sony offered to adopt HD DVD's software advantages (advanced audio compression codecs, VC-1 and AVC video codecs) in exchange for keeping the physical disc sturcture of the BD platform which has almost twice the bit-packing efficiency over HD DVD (not to mention a greatly increased bandwidth capabilility). Toshiba did not want to bargin as relinquishing the physical disc structure would also mean having to share royalities on the new format with other parties.

Toshiba walked. But what's funny is that Blu-ray *** IS THE UNIFIED FORMAT ***. Sony took VC-1, AVC, Dolby TrueHD and DTS-HD MA from HD DVD and incorporated them into BD (remember, up until that point BD was going to be MPEG2 video with lossy DD/DTS and only PCM as a lossless option for audio).

So we got our unified format after all: Blu-ray Disc as it now appears.

But Toshiba decided not to cash in on the deal and instead wanted to stick with HD DVD to try to monopolize royalties and to minimize short-term replication costs even if it meant sticking us with a format that has just barely more than 1/2 the capacity of Blu-ray Disc.

Anyone who wants to talk about the 51GB vaporware HD DVD tripple-layer should also realize that 75 and 100GB Blu-ray Discs are already moving forward.