Could Warner Bros. Abandon HD DVD in 2008?

[DaViD Boulet]

BTW,

Lotus and 630,

just did a whole bunch of research and want to confirm that I stand corrected about Toshiba's original SD specification as including dual-layer playback. That is honestly news to me! And I even attended the stereophile convention in '96 in NYC where the new "unified" DVD format had just been triumphed and somehow something must have been said there (erroneously) about the single-layer SD thing that stuck in my brain ever since.

I stand corrected, and appreciate the chance to be educated.

Wanted to make sure and share this to clarify that my earlier debate over the "FUD" related to the SD/MMCD thing was based on an error on my part, and not a desire to spread more FUD!

dave

http://www.spannerworks.net/reference/10_8a.asp

[DaViD Boulet]

True… I guess the question is: When did they commit to attending the HD DVD press event? When did the HD DVD PR Group alert the press about who would be attending? If these events are fairly recent, it could provide clues. Certainly it’s better that they are listed then if they weren’t listed!

If we assumed (for argument's sake) for a moment that WB is indeed going Blu at CES,

this doesn't mean that that it's a sly move unknown to Toshiba or other invested parties. In fact, even if WB is going Blu, you can bet that it's after many serious talks with Toshiba, Sony, and other affected parties. For all we know, if the "industry" has rallied and pushed for a single format to help encourage "high def sales" (which seems to be the goal with a single-format approach), the "losing" format has probably been offered all kinds of royaly-compensations that won't be discussed openly with the press or public.

Toshiba and the BDA have been talking a lot lately... most likely about these very things.

Heck, for all we know, the "announcement" might be made by *both* HD DVD *and* Blu-ray parties, regardless of who's been picked the "winner".

[1more4HDDVD]

Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet

If we assumed (for argument's sake) for a moment that WB is indeed going Blu at CES,

this doesn't mean that that it's a sly move unknown to Toshiba or other invested parties. In fact, even if WB is going Blu, you can bet that it's after many serious talks with Toshiba, Sony, and other affected parties. For all we know, if the "industry" has rallied and pushed for a single format to help encourage "high def sales" (which seems to be the goal with a single-format approach), the "losing" format has probably been offered all kinds of royaly-compensations that won't be discussed openly with the press or public.

Toshiba and the BDA have been talking a lot lately... most likely about these very things.

Heck, for all we know, the "announcement" might be made by *both* HD DVD *and* Blu-ray parties, regardless of who's been picked the "winner".

Yeah, we may all be surprised..

Funny, while writing this, I got an email from WB promoting “Appleseed Ex Machina” on all BD, HD DVD & DVD on March 11th. I guess it’s business as usual until we hear otherwise…

[kennyt]

Well,

I hope we'll find out more @ CES, I plan to attend the Blu-ray Disc Press Conference but will unfortunately not be in Vegas in time for the Sunday @ 10AM Toshiba HD DVD conference....

Given they are having it @ 10 AM on Sunday in Vegas, maybe I should just assume they have nothing of value to say.....

[PRO-630HD]

Originally Posted by Lotus

True it's either a sign or well not a sign.

I don't really think it changes anything. Has the BDA announced who will be there yet?

My feeling right now is we either see Warner and Universal going Blue...

or Warner, New Line going Red, and Disney going Purple.

Either one means an end to this stupid war so let it happen already.

My point is this. If they were dropping the format why would they be at the HDDVD PRG press event? They wouldn't be. They weren't at the hddvd prg press event at IFA in Berlin! But they were at the bluray press event. If they were dropping the format they wouldn't be listed. Whether they will be at the bluray press event remains to be seen.

Make no mistake if Warner goes blu with New Line behind them hddvd is dead in the water. My point is bluray has done nothing to pull ahead.

The only advantage bluray had is software sales and that is essentially gone. Look at amazon sales stats as of right now using Warner titles in the top 25 selling items for each.
Planet Earth HDDVD #10 Bluray #38
Blade Runner HDDVD #91 Bluray #90
HPOOTP HDDVD #172 Bluray #179
HP 5 disc set HDDVD #202 Bluray #154
Blood Diamond HDDVD #310 Bluray #2530
Troy HDDVD #410 Bluray #955
Unforgiven HDDVD#517 Bluray #2207
The Departed HDDVD #563 Bluray #1064
POTO HDDVD #673 Bluray #2588
The Shining HDDVD #690 Bluray #2940
The Fugitive HDDVD #710 Bluray #to low to mention, not in top 100

As you can see out of these 11 titles only 2 are selling better on bluray.
Best selling stand alone bluray player Sony BDP-S300 #1188
Best selling stand alone hddvd player Toshiba HD-A30 #19
All 3 3rd gen Toshiba players in the top 100.

Not to mention how many bluray players can enable the IME on Warner high def titles. 1!!! The new Panasonic. How does Warner make these so they don't **** off bluray customers. A BD-50 with burnt in PIP and 2 encodes on the same disc like T3? You are going to need 60gb discs to do this for most titles. Have IME for the few people with players?
You can see this is not an issue with hddvd.

I don't care how many articles coming from biased reporters on Warner going are out there like the one with Thomas K. Allen concerning Dan Silberbergs comments at Blufest when every articles written by him since 2005 has been extremely biased toward bluray. You know as well as I do the BDA spinsters haven't slept in months. Remember the article "Paramount now prefers Bluray" stating that Face Off and Blades of Glory would have features exclusive to the bluray just weeks before they went exclusive.

Those thinking Warner will go bluray exclusive at CES are going to be extremely dissappointed!! Hardware sales for bluray are behind, the $300 Sony is proof. Warner see's stand alone hardware sales as crucial.
Software sales are dwindling and you need to sell more titles in Bluray to make up for the extra manufacturing cost. With the current 1.1:1 edge bluray has the hddvd is easily showing more profitablilty to the studio as Warner has stated that is all they care about.

My money says HDDVD exclusive in 2008.

[1more4HDDVD]

Originally Posted by kennyt

Well,

I hope we'll find out more @ CES, I plan to attend the Blu-ray Disc Press Conference but will unfortunately not be in Vegas in time for the Sunday @ 10AM Toshiba HD DVD conference....

Given they are having it @ 10 AM on Sunday in Vegas, maybe I should just assume they have nothing of value to say.....

Toshiba's conference is at 10 AM, but the HD DVD PR GRP is at 8:30 PM and lasts for two hours.