Could Warner Bros. Abandon HD DVD in 2008?

[1more4HDDVD]

Lotus,

I’ve read through all of your posts regarding the topic of Warner Bros and all I can say is “WOW!” Either you’ve given us a window into the current situation like no one else has or you’ve pulled one over on us big time. As you can imagine, those of us who have followed the format war have had enough rumors not pan out (on both sides) that our first instinct is to be skeptical.

In early November, Sony Electronics President Stan Glasgow said: “[The player will be] in the $399 range...I don’t expect it to go much lower than that"

Three weeks ago, you said: “They [WB & NL] claim that the stand alone hardware winner of the holiday season is a deciding factor.”

And now we are seeing $300 price points from both Samsung & Sony. Certainly there has been a change in plans since Glasgow’s statements in November (when standalone blu-ray players were actually still $499 MSRP). A $200 (40%) price drop in less than 45 days is quite significant. Can you provide any more insight on this?

Also, there was a major study that came out a week ago that revealed: “Among HDTV Intenders who are likely to purchase a new high-def DVD player in the next six months, 43% prefer HD DVD, 27% prefer Blu-ray, and 30% are undecided.” Obviously, this could not have come out at a better time for the HD DVD side. What are your thoughts?

Thanks for your insights!

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by 1more4HDDVD

Lotus,

I’ve read through all of your posts regarding the topic of Warner Bros and all I can say is “WOW!” Either you’ve given us a window into the current situation like no one else has or you’ve pulled one over on us big time. As you can imagine, those of us who have followed the format war have had enough rumors not pan out (on both sides) that our first instinct is to be skeptical.

In early November, Sony Electronics President Stan Glasgow said: “[The player will be] in the $399 range...I don’t expect it to go much lower than that"

Three weeks ago, you said: “They [WB & NL] claim that the stand alone hardware winner of the holiday season is a deciding factor.”

And now we are seeing $300 price points from both Samsung & Sony. Certainly there has been a change in plans since Glasgow’s statements in November (when standalone blu-ray players were actually still $499 MSRP). A $200 (40%) price drop in less than 45 days is quite significant. Can you provide any more insight on this?

Also, there was a major study that came out a week ago that revealed: “Among HDTV Intenders who are likely to purchase a new high-def DVD player in the next six months, 43% prefer HD DVD, 27% prefer Blu-ray, and 30% are undecided.” Obviously, this could not have come out at a better time for the HD DVD side. What are your thoughts?

Thanks for your insights!

Well for starters... there is nothing "wow," about my information. I've not been told that Warners is picking HD DVD.

Samsung is discontinuing the BD1400 which may be why it's getting dumped.

As to why the Sony is getting so low...

I don't really know.

All I'm hearing now is that come CES the war is over and that one format will be the obvious victor. I've heard this from FOX, Disney, New Line, and Warners people and only that CES may "shock," a lot of people.

If I was to guess, I'd say they're going BD and Universal is with them... just from the way the guys at FOX were acting.

Then again I know Disney has authored TL test discs for some of their major titles. This could just be a "testing the waters just in case,' kind of thing. That or their push for TL to be accepted may have been a sign. They've always stated that disc capacity was their main reason for BD over HD DVD.

All I know for certain is that CES is supposed to be exciting. It is either going to be very Blue like the last two years.... or Red.

However sales of Harry Potter and other titles on both formats are showing a remarkable neutrality in sales numbers. So it's really hard to say.

If they only care about sales... it looks like HD DVD. Yet the guys at FOX seem pretty happy about CES. Then again maybe they're jumping ship. Your guess is as good as mine.

[kennyt]

Originally Posted by Lotus

All I'm hearing now is that come CES the war is over and that one format will be the obvious victor. I've heard this from FOX, Disney, New Line, and Warners people and only that CES may "shock," a lot of people.


All I know for certain is that CES is supposed to be exciting.

Well, we'll see but I suspect it will just be the monster it has become! I would love one winner ASAP, though either way I am out hardware! I am of course willing to throw out players if need be to have a single format! Oh, who am I kidding, I'd keep my XA2 if BD wins as it is just such a damn good SD DVD player and I own many HD DVD's!

[PRO-630HD]

I'm sorry, but I have to say this...

Wasn't it FOX who was going around at CES 2007 saying that the format war would be over at the end of the first quarter?

I wonder why Mr. Dunn didn't say which format would be the "one"? Things that make you go hmmmm...
__________________
David Vaughn
DVD Editor
Home Theater Spot
Contributing Writer
Ultimate AV

taken from avsforum.com

[1more4HDDVD]

If there is one thing that almost all of the “insiders” (on various forums) agree on, it’s that WB is going to make a decision and this format war will be radically different come next month. As my name suggests, I strongly prefer HD DVD, but I’d rather see a resolution to the format war then to see it drag on another year.

IMO, everything hinges on Microsoft. If they’re serious about winning the format war, then I can see this thing breaking towards HD DVD in a big way. Especially if there is a bidding war… no one wants to get in a bidding war with Microsoft.

On October 22, CNBC’s Jim Goldman wrote:
“Sources I'm talking to at the company suggest that an announcement could come soon that Microsoft will unveil a new version of Xbox 360 featuring a built-in HD-DVD player and HD tuner. The device might be officially unveiled during Bill Gates' keynote at the upcoming Consumer Electronics Show in January.” Microsoft issued denials as expected (presumably to protect holiday sales), but the next day Jim Goldman wrote: “I bounced that comment [Microsoft’s denial] off the folks I originally spoke to and they're not buying it.”

If this is true, then I can see Microsoft going all out to get Warner HD DVD exclusive. Announcing an HD DVD Xbox along with Warner announcing their decision to support HD DVD exclusively would be a huge victory for Microsoft. On the other hand, if Blu-ray is the “obvious victor” coming out of CES, then as much as I love Xbox, I have to admit that PS3 is a better choice to be the center of your living room (for the average family). After investing billions of dollars in the Xbox platform, I just can’t see Microsoft letting this happen.

So, I guess we’ll have to wait and see. Hopefully, we are entering 3rd act, the conclusion to this format war and we’ll all have answers soon.

[PRO-630HD]

Lotus, so one Fox exec says his side will win and you change your stance?

As well you supposedly have a lot of inside info we do not have access to. I will bring up the comments about the ability of Microsoft or Sony to but 5 major studios for 600 million. This is far beyond the level of any forum reader to obtain. So actually if true it is WOW as this is nothing that could have been put together from press snipets or the fact that Disney isn't the big gun they are made out to be and would come around if hddvd was selling well as you have stated.

In prior posts you have stated you talked to a academy award winning director who said his films would not be released on bluray as New Line was going exclusive to hddvd.

Within your last few posts Warner now has TL-51's in the pipeline to be produced and they had just dropped proposed bluray titles and all of a sudden they are going to do a 180?

Lets look at what we know for a fact.

You know as well as I the reason for the $299 Sony BDP-S300. Sony openly stated that the price of there players would drop 20% and nothing more as in doing so undercuts profits from other manufacturers. Since Toshiba is by in large the only hddvd manufacturer they can come out with cheaply priced players. There can only be one reason. Sony is in panic mode. Their hardware sales are so far behind they had to drop the price. Warner has long stated stand alone player sales is what is important to them.

Bluray probably does have a slight edge in software sales as you have stated. They should they have 2.7 million potential players or 3.6 times as many bluray players than hddvd and only a 1.1:1 sales lead when it comes to Warner titles. We both know with the software sales so close the hddvd's are easily earning Warner more profits due to the far cheaper replication. Warner has long said as well when it comes to software there only concern is returning profit back to the studio. With the increased cost of bluray to manufacture you need a healthy bluray sales lead of at least 2:1 to show a slight increase of bluray profitability.

With all the rumours of Warner going bluray exclusive since Sept. would this really shock anyone? That's all the media has reported. When you do some research on prior articles written by the author's of these such as the one by Thomas K. Arnold concerning Dan Silberberg's comments at Blufest you will see all prior articles written by him are very biased toward bluray dating back to 2005.

With for the most part a craptastic set of titles for release during the xmas season hddvd is doing extremely well. Bluray has easily had a far better and stronger selection to choose from.

All I know is 1 format was extremely well thought out from the start. It is fully backward compatible and doesn't leave any consumers out in the cold in regards to advanced HDM features and specs. 99% of the discs are not lacking extras from the dvd which is an arrogant move by the studios for a double dip. The players are more affordable and have a better set of features alll the way around with secondary video and audio encoders, ethernet ports for web enabled features and firmware upgrades, memory storage and advanced HDi interactivity for bookmarking and interactive extras.

With TL-51's and 34's right around the corner Warner would be shooting themselves in the foot to go any other way. They are going to alienate alot of bluray disc buyers with the IME that only works on a handfull of players. Probably why they didn't put them on the last 2 Potter films. Web enabled features are out the window. The conveinance of doing a firmware upgrade over the internet is gone. Warners royalties for bluray are miniscule as they only added BD-9 so they kiss that goodbye. The beauty for the BDA is they get to sell the public another bluray player as the one they just bought is already an obsolete model. Hopefully Warner prevents the public from getting bent over like this.

Lotus, after CES you can share who that major BD studio was that was willing to jump behind Warner if they went hddvd exclusive? If they go hddvd exclusive we will know soon enough.