Could Warner Bros. Abandon HD DVD in 2008?

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet

Lionsgate would be possible. But MGM is owned by Sony and Disney is one of the strongest backers of Blu-ray exclusivity there is. They don't just want "a" format to win, they want *blu-ray* to win.

Lionsgate isn't a big name.

MGM is also not owned by Sony. Sony was unable to obtain financing to gain control of MGM but they do own I believe 20%. That is why FOX handles MGM's video distribution and not Sony.

If Disney is such a strong backer then Bob didn't get the memo. He has routinely told major stock holders that they are constantly weighing the situation about whether to go neutral. The VP over there is very good at BD spin. I might point out that the BV VP a week before they left DIVX was still calling DVD the lesser format.

Peter over at FOX has strong views as well. This is a decision though that is not going to come from a VP, but from the top. While a VP can justify his company stance the CEO has to answer to major stock holders. NextGen Discs are not selling and have yet to show people it will replace the lost revenue from DVD sales declines.

While the VP of a major Studio who is head of video distribution is strong in his beliefs on copy protection, disc size, etc. the end comes down to profit. His division is just not showing the total profit points that the CEO wants to be at.

If you're barely treading water and all of a sudden another major studio decides to go with the other guys you've got problems. All momentum since the release of the PS3 and the boost it gave BD software sales has gone to HD DVD. They're controlling the hardware sales right now at least in a 4 to 1 ratio for 4 straight weeks. The market growth just hasn't been there while you've participated in the format war. Software is still in BD's corner.

So Warners picks the other side. As a CEO you need to do something to spark market growth and nothing has worked with the side you chose. So you test the waters on the other side in hopes of sparking market growth. You really have no other choice. You may have your VP have a fit, but the bottom line is always money.

Universal feels that way on the HD DVD side, and another major studio feels that way on the BD side. Whichever side Warners chooses is going to cause a domino effect. They will likely be followed rather quickly by a major studio on either side.

I have no problem dropping the Universal name because I know it's been leaked already. I won't be dropping the BD side's name because I'm not going to cause anymore trouble for people than they normally have to deal with.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet

On AVS, when someone is an "insider" and shared inside information, they disclose who they are so their credibility can be double checked by staff and readers.

Lotus, the way you share these inside tips as though you're stating fact. How in the world are you supposed to be any different than any other anonamous poster on an internet board? Why won't you share who you are and what company you work for?

I'm not discounting the veracity of what you're sharing. I'm questioning your motives for staying anonamous given that *anyone* could say anything they like in the same capacity and say anything they like.

AVS is a giant joke. I already said I'm in between jobs so to speak. So I don't work for a company. As to why say who I am...

I'm not causing people anymore grief. Heads almost rolled with the Business Week article, and keeping things vague helps a lot of people. Some people have already asked if I know who the person is on this site who stated Warners was for sale. While Warners is very interested in advertising help they seem to be really interested in the Holiday sales.

For those thinking it's software based....

Why is the Samsung unit $299 right now?

[gstarr]

I have over 300 standard dvd's. For me, the price of the HD or Blu Ray dvd player is quite small once you have bought 50 to 100 discs. I'm sure Toshiba is taking a monetary bath selling machines at retail from $99-$399. Add that to the billion dollars they spent with Canon for SED research and having it turn into vaporware can't be helping their bottom line. I will either buy a 2nd generation combination machine in 2008 or both an HD and a Blu Ray.

If an OPPO standard upconverting DVD player, such as the 981 costs $229, it makes me wonder how cheap the parts on the Toshiba are or how badly a bath they are taking. They better sell a helluva lot more discs than BLU RAY to even break even.

What is also amazing is that many of the same people that want expensive video chipsets, from Realta, Gennum, Anchor Bay, or Marvell in their receivers, not to mention Wolfson or Burr & Brown top rung DACS in their receivers, not to mention great feature sets somehow gon't hold these players to the same standard. We all know how many people will wish someone will give them an HD or Blu Ray from Lexicon, Meridian, Levinson, etc. as a gift:-)

Just some observations to be taken with a grain of salt.

Greg

[PRO-630HD]

Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet

Lionsgate would be possible. But MGM is owned by Sony and Disney is one of the strongest backers of Blu-ray exclusivity there is. They don't just want "a" format to win, they want *blu-ray* to win.

Due pray tell why they voted for the approval of TL-51 and single sided twin disc dvd/hddvd combo then and were the only BD backing studio to do so. Again they helped develop HDi, you know the interactivity that works so well on hddvd versus BDJ which has proven to be one problem after another.

[PRO-630HD]

Originally Posted by gstarr

I have over 300 standard dvd's. For me, the price of the HD or Blu Ray dvd player is quite small once you have bought 50 to 100 discs. I'm sure Toshiba is taking a monetary bath selling machines at retail from $99-$399. Add that to the billion dollars they spent with Canon for SED research and having it turn into vaporware can't be helping their bottom line. I will either buy a 2nd generation combination machine in 2008 or both an HD and a Blu Ray.

If an OPPO standard upconverting DVD player, such as the 981 costs $229, it makes me wonder how cheap the parts on the Toshiba are or how badly a bath they are taking. They better sell a helluva lot more discs than BLU RAY to even break even. Greg

Toshiba isn't selling any hddvd players at $99 anymore. They are selling from $199 to $499 depending on the deal. At most retailers the A3 is $249 which surprises me as I thought they would be $199 everywhere. Toshiba doesn't seem to be to concerned about price anymore. Like apparently they have shown the powers to be they could deliver on their hardware sales. Bluray appears to be in panic mode as the Samsung is now only $299. Something the bigwigs at bluray said would not happen. Less than a month ago when players were $499 they said they would see a 20% price drop and that is it. When you have so many manufacturers behind a format you cannot undercut the competition to much and cut their profits. Toshiba can as they are the only manufacturer. Rumour is another $299 player is about to hit and that is the Sony bdp-s300. Something tells me the BDA is a little worried.

[Dave Moritz]

WB may have made that statement for Blu-ray supporters benefit but one thing is for certain. And that is if and that is a big if, if WB goes Blu-ray only it will not be good for HD-DVD. Toshiba is most likely losing alot of money on players and so far Blu-ray seems to be outselling HD-DVD 2:1 on software titles. And if I heard correctly I believe that Toshiba spent around 1.5 million to sway Paramount to become HD-DVD only. Toshiba is getting desperate IMHO and even though HD-DVD is a good format. And from what I understand and I could be wrong, Sony had there own format when DVD was being introduced. And Toshiba asked them to back the format they where pushing instead of what Sony wanted to bring to market. And Sony gave in and went along with DVD instead of starting a format war. Fast forward to today and we have Toshiba and Sony going at it over format revenue. Only this time Sony asked Toshiba to come on board with Blu-ray and Toshiba basically told Sony to got to hell. I fell that Toshiba did not want to give up there revenue and is doing everything they can to accomplish this goal. Can you blame them for wanting to keep there revenue stream intact, no. But what they should have done was return the favor and went with Blu-ray and we would not have this format war right now. And IMHO Blu-ray sales would most likely be alot stronger now then they currently are. The format war was good at first because it help drive down the cost of hardware so in that respect it was good for consumers in the short term. In the long term the format war only serves to hurt the adoption of HD media. And keep consumers away because they are afraid that they might buy the format that looses.

Right now I believe that HD-DVD has two exclusive studios (Universal & Paranount), and Blu-ray has (Fox, Disney, Sony & Columbia Tri-star). But also includes MGM and Lionsgate for the Blu-ray side so IMHO Blu-ray has 6 exclusive studios and HD-DVD only has 2 studios. If WB was to drop HD-DVD and like I said its still a big IF, how long can Universal remain an HD-DVD only studio? I would be surprised if Universal under those circumstances does not end up neutral by summer 2008. And maybe just maybe Paramount might reevaluate there decision to go HD-DVD only at point in time and they to may swing back to being a neutral studio. That would be a very bad scenario for Toshiba coupled with the money they seem to be loosing. The board of directors could step in and end the format war by killing off the HD-DVD format. Granted this is something that could happen, but at this time the format war is alive and well and there is no end in sight. Like Jerry Colliano said "it seems predictable that for the near future Warner Brothers will remain a producer of both disc formats going forward. Time will tell". I would go a step further and say that it seems predictable that for the near future the format war will continue to go on.