Could Warner Bros. Abandon HD DVD in 2008?

[TheMoose]

Originally Posted by Lotus

Now you make a statement about software numbers not showing but they did, then the Black Friday/Die Hard week and you BD guys act like the week after or the week before never happened. One week is almost 3 to 1 and you guys immediately act like that's all there is.

And "you guys" conveniently forget that Blu-Ray has won every week this year (2-1) & with the aggressive software sales going on now the numbers will have a big spike at the end of the year.
What do you suppose WB will think about those numbers?

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by TheMoose

And "you guys" conveniently forget that Blu-Ray has won every week this year (2-1) & with the aggressive software sales going on now the numbers will have a big spike at the end of the year.
What do you suppose WB will think about those numbers?

Ok the official numbers aren't in but they've said that the week after Black Friday wasn't nearly as good for BD. So your spike was a one week wonder.

Also BD hasn't won every week this year because last I checked the first two weeks of January 2007 still count as part of the year. This is commonly repeated since some online blog added that bit to the data reported in articles.

WB cares about profit. Right now both are about even in profit. You see BD costs them 40% more to replicate, distribute, etc. Do the math. A 1.85:1 edge for the year but 40% more cost.

I'm amused to near death over how stuborn you guys are about the fact that Studios don't care about what amounts to no profit. In fact the reason Warners is up on the block is they're ****ed off with how sales are. They believe if they go exclusive the others will follow their lead (and they will). When there is such little income all the Studios care about is growing the market. Because they need numbers to make noticable money. That is why they care about hardware sales. You guys keep saying "no they only care about software." Do you realize how stuborn that is?

Lets consider this, the week before Black Friday wasn't almost 3 to 1 and the week after wasn't almost 3 to 1. BD owns an insignificant sales lead in software but just recently started to drastically lose the hardware battle. Up until October the sales lead for HD DVD was 9%. There has been a 24% jump for them (for the year) and this is extremely significant.

It blows my mind that last year at this time it was reversed. HD DVD had the software lead and it was about 1.85 to 1. Yet the PS3 had just sold 600,000 units and the BD fanatics were jumping up and down in joy claiming victory. The HD DVD idiots were saying "but we still have the software lead! So it doesn't matter. Meanwhile the smart people were saying "wait, it will take a bit for the software to catch up but it will."

Then it did. Those 170,000 new stand alone players that HD DVD has picked up will start buying titles and most after Christmas. How you don't seem to think it will is amazing.

I mean I know you're a PS3 guy but come on. Math doesn't lie. You can't admit when you're wrong about the 360 and graphics. You can't admit that the new owners of HD DVD players will buy discs. I mean what is it with you? Your PS3 will still play games if BD dies. It's not like you're one of the few people who bought a BD player. So why do you get so stuborn about the subject?

I mean you make wild statements about the PS3. Then when proven wrong you say "my eyes see differently," then post pictures of one game and that's it? I could have put up pictures of Forza up and everyone could see they look pretty much the same except the backgrounds look better and more detailed on the 360. I was going to, but then realized I could be comparing a color picture to black and white and you'd act color blind.

How dumb would I look if I just kept pointing to the week of Transformers sales and acting like it was a market trend definer?

Pretty dumb. It's the holiday whatever happens in software sales won't define what happens in 2008. The hardware sales will.

As for Warner they want the biggest check.

[TheMoose]

Originally Posted by Lotus

Those 170,000 new stand alone players that HD DVD has picked up will start buying titles and most after Christmas. How you don't seem to think it will is amazing.

I mean I know you're a PS3 guy but come on. Math doesn't lie. You can't admit when you're wrong about the 360 and graphics. You can't admit that the new owners of HD DVD players will buy discs. I mean what is it with you? Your PS3 will still play games if BD dies. It's not like you're one of the few people who bought a BD player. So why do you get so stuborn about the subject?.

How many of those $99 HD players do you think were bought by people as a second HD player?
How many people that would only buy a HD player because it was $99 are going to spend $30 each for movies?
The people that bought it as a second player got the free movies & will probably continue buying movies like they did before, that equals no gain for HD-DVD software.
Those that only bought it because it was $99 will see the price of movies at $30 when they are used to buying DVD's in the $9 clearance bin & will use it as an up converting DVD player & will drag out the free HD movies they got with it to impress the brother in law, that equals very few new movies sold.

As for me being stubborn, so what?
You seem to think yours is the only opinion anyone should listen to, That's pretty arrogant don't you think?

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by TheMoose

How many of those $99 HD players do you think were bought by people as a second HD player?
How many people that would only buy a HD player because it was $99 are going to spend $30 each for movies?
The people that bought it as a second player got the free movies & will probably continue buying movies like they did before, that equals no gain for HD-DVD software.
Those that only bought it because it was $99 will see the price of movies at $30 when they are used to buying DVD's in the $9 clearance bin & will use it as an up converting DVD player & will drag out the free HD movies they got with it to impress the brother in law, that equals very few new movies sold.

As for me being stubborn, so what?
You seem to think yours is the only opinion anyone should listen to, That's pretty arrogant don't you think?

80,000 players have been sold since the $98 price point compared to the 20,000 BD players. You're obviously right of those 170,000 players they are all likely 2nd players or all bought by KennyT who just needed a few more.

Those who spent $200 have no plans of ever having movies to watch on the unit except for what they rent.

You're brilliant. You should be running Warners.

There is a big difference I'm not spouting opinion. I'm talking about mathmatics and probability. You're talking about dreamland where math and probability don't matter.

Just like it isn't an opinion that the 360 GPU is far better than the PS3. That isn't an opinion.

To think that 170,000 new HD DVD players were sold to either previous owners or to people who just won't buy movies is idiotic. That is like saying none of the new PS3 owners will buy BD movies because they just waited for the unit to be so cheap and they're too cheap to buy BDs.

It's a stupid arguement and entirely unrealistic.

The only arguement would be that are the new 170,000 players going to have the same attachment rate? I'd bet no. However I'd also bet that it would be on average about 1 less per unit. That will still show a software boost to HD DVD in 2008.

[kennyt]

Lotus,

I didn't buy any $98 players, even though I could always use more sources....

Let's try to refrain from name calling.

Make your point, don't get so personal, it undermines any reasonable point you make.

[deacongreg]

Originally Posted by kennyt

Lotus,

I didn't buy any $98 players, even though I could always use more sources....

Let's try to refrain from name calling.

Make your point, don't get so personal, it undermines any reasonable point you make.

That is right kennyt. We don`t need this on the forum.

My issue is, is there really going to be a winner in the long run. If, the object overall now, is to finally draw more mainstream, Joe 6, whatever you want to say, into the high end world where we live and breathe, then how does this war help.

It doesn`t. I`ve been saying this all along. The consumers who bought those inexpensive players, who do you think they were? Your friend at work, your neighbor, relative, who bought a HDTV and knew that needed a new HD source. But, one, we confused them and mudded the waters with a choice. Blu or HD DVD? Then, before the price decrease, pricing was too high for them. And again, which one? Its not about Blu-Ray has more storage capacity, or this or that. They don`t care like we do!! I`m not even sure if I do anymore.

Ask kennyt and Andrew about their own headaches with Blu-Ray units not playing movies w/o a firmware update!! Are you kidding me??!! Now liking the Toshiba units just because, they just work. IS THIS SINKING IN YET!! And though as a combo player/game console, the PS3 is a bargain, these people are NOT interested in that. They just want to watch a HD movie on a unit that is compatible with their HDTV. That is all. Toshiba, just made it a heck of a lot easier with the price dropping. Then, they`ll use BB or NetFlix to rent their titles.

Lets get real here gentlemen, people want entertainment, but having to choose, high prices and confusion never help. This is what I see. Why, you two are having this discussion over it and now really arguing, blows my mind. This war just says to me, we (high end community) still have a long way to go yet. No one wins here. If the goal is to win more consumers to what we here on this forum all love and enjoy, this kind of confusion by manufacturers needs to stop.