Could Warner Bros. Abandon HD DVD in 2008?

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by deacongreg

But what I have always said from the very beginning was, there should be no war ever. People on this forum have gone back and forth on being early adoptors, enjoying the HD quality now, and who supposedly will win.

The industry, especially the high end community, does not need this. I just recently, thanks to Jerry and kennyt have decided to get a HD DVD player. People have even said that because we are into the high end, that we should be expected to deal with firmware updates and such. NO, NO, NO!! Its this kind of thinking that has continued to keep more people from moving into our arena.

The ultimate goal is for this great equipment to reproduce music, and now movies, to the best of its ability, without taken anything away from the original performance. So, we can enjoy the music and or movie. Not to be home tweaking, updating files just to watch a movie.

Thats it gentleman. When I go home, I want to power up, and listen. Period. Having 4 units with eject buttons is not what I call a leap in technology.

Firmware to watch a movie:

BAD.

Format War:

BAD.

We can't change that, and unfortunately for us MS decided to really get in the game this summer and helped buy Paramount and Dreamworks. This move seriously lengthened the war. Universal was considering going neutral before that move.

Now WB is looking to make up money on its lost Total HD disc. Sony or Toshiba/MS are going to have to pony up for exclusive rights to WB titles.

If a move has to go down I hope HD DVD gets it, because that would help push their sales. We know if they reach 1M in home standalones that Disney and FOX will have to start releasing on the format. That would further push sales, and sooner or later Sony would have to join the club because the market would demand it.

I just don't see a quick (2 year) solution for BD with MS throwing around money.

[merv46]

facts are facts and blu ray is out selling hddvd by at least 2 to 1 and some weeks close to 3 to 1. This would not be a surprise.

[DaViD Boulet]

We know if they reach 1M in home standalones that Disney and FOX will have to start releasing on the format.

Where do you come up with these out-of-hat FUD concepts that you state as though they're established fact?

If you're not a shill for the HD DVD camp (as you claim), then please stop spreading this unfounded anti-BD FUD. Fox and Disney are steadfast in their BD support... they've said so over and over and over. They intend to make BD win. They've both said that over and over. If Universal and Paramount aren't persuaded by BD's current 2-3:1 lead over HD DVD software sales, why would Disney and Fox suddenly abandon their pro-BD policy in favor of a format that competes 50:50 (should WB go with HD DVD)???

If WB sides with HD DVD exclusively then the format war will bring mass-adoption of HD media to a stand-still and, in all likelihood, HDM on both discs will become a niche product. That last point is my opinion, of course.

[DaViD Boulet]

Exactly. The consumers are the victims here of a big stupid fight between Studios and major corporations. How can we benefit from their war? We obviously don't. All we can do is hope one side does win and does so quickly. Obviously BD had the best chance of a quick clean win, and they screwed it up on their own with high priced players and initial releases that didn't stand up to the half priced competition.

Then the PS3 saved the day and in July it looked over. Universal was considering going neutral and everything was pointing towards a BD victory. Then HD DVD bought Paramount and Dreamworks (not to mention rumors of making Universal happy to stay HD DVD).

With hardware sales firmly in the 70% range right now for HD DVD things are getting really hot. That means the people who invested in BD are getting upset, nobody likes to be a loser. They're still winning but they just hope that some how things don't get any worse.

WB is going to go exclusive and the side they pick will likely win. All the momentum is in the HD DVD side right now.

This all makes sense except your last statement. What "momentum" are you talking about? The low-cost HD DVD players that have sold in good numbers but haven't out-paced BD/PS3 sales or shifted the software sales ratio between the two camps? For all we know those players were purchased by current HD DVD enthusiasts as a second unit for the bedroom or basement. It certainly seems odd that such an influx of hardware hasn't revealed a parallel shift in software sales figures compared to BD.

It's not over. WB is looking at 4th quarter sales which have yet to finalize. There's good indication that some low-cost BD hardware might find its way into the market for Christmas sales. While I think that Toshiba lost out other manufacturers by pricing their hardware so low as to negate good profit margins for manufaturers (and no, your retail shop's profit margins on HD DVD units have nothing to do with that), I agree that BD needs to become more agressive with pricing to fight Toshiba at their game.

It's not over yet.

We can't change that, and unfortunately for us MS decided to really get in the game this summer and helped buy Paramount and Dreamworks. This move seriously lengthened the war. Universal was considering going neutral before that move.

Very interesting that you say this, given that MS has said they didn't offer any money though many in the industry said that they made Toshiba's financial proposal to Paramount/Dreamworks possible by off-accounting-radar means.

You also mentioned in another thread that Sony and MS are in a bidding-auction with Warner over BD/HD DVD exclusivity. That's a very interesting statement to make given how hard MS has worked at denying any financial incentives to the studios... attempting to levy all offers on Toshiba's books. Are you sure you don't work for Microsoft? Close friends with Amir?

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet

Where do you come up with these out-of-hat FUD concepts that you state as though they're established fact?

If you're not a shill for the HD DVD camp (as you claim), then please stop spreading this unfounded anti-BD FUD. Fox and Disney are steadfast in their BD support... they've said so over and over and over. They intend to make BD win. They've both said that over and over. If Universal and Paramount aren't persuaded by BD's current 2-3:1 lead over HD DVD software sales, why would Disney and Fox suddenly abandon their pro-BD policy in favor of a format that competes 50:50 (should WB go with HD DVD)???

If WB sides with HD DVD exclusively then the format war will bring mass-adoption of HD media to a stand-still and, in all likelihood, HDM on both discs will become a niche product. That last point is my opinion, of course.

Bob Iger and Peter Staddon.

Both have made the statements. Bob has made multiple statements that frequently contradict the VP who handles home video.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet

This all makes sense except your last statement. What "momentum" are you talking about? The low-cost HD DVD players that have sold in good numbers but haven't out-paced BD/PS3 sales or shifted the software sales ratio between the two camps? For all we know those players were purchased by current HD DVD enthusiasts as a second unit for the bedroom or basement. It certainly seems odd that such an influx of hardware hasn't revealed a parallel shift in software sales figures compared to BD.

It's not over. WB is looking at 4th quarter sales which have yet to finalize. There's good indication that some low-cost BD hardware might find its way into the market for Christmas sales. While I think that Toshiba lost out other manufacturers by pricing their hardware so low as to negate good profit margins for manufaturers (and no, your retail shop's profit margins on HD DVD units have nothing to do with that), I agree that BD needs to become more agressive with pricing to fight Toshiba at their game.

It's not over yet.



Very interesting that you say this, given that MS has said they didn't offer any money though many in the industry said that they made Toshiba's financial proposal to Paramount/Dreamworks possible by off-accounting-radar means.

You also mentioned in another thread that Sony and MS are in a bidding-auction with Warner over BD/HD DVD exclusivity. That's a very interesting statement to make given how hard MS has worked at denying any financial incentives to the studios... attempting to levy all offers on Toshiba's books. Are you sure you don't work for Microsoft? Close friends with Amir?

Warners is looking at the number on the check and has no interest in sales numbers. In fact they've stated that due to BD costs being higher than profit is similar between the two.

Now you make a statement about software numbers not showing but they did, then the Black Friday/Die Hard week and you BD guys act like the week after or the week before never happened. One week is almost 3 to 1 and you guys immediately act like that's all there is.

There is no cheap BD player coming for Christmas. Toshiba is not losing money on the A3. You can jump up and down all you want about it, but facts are they would make money if the MSRP was $199. The unit is CHEAP and the competition could do something similar if they made a 1080i unit. I don't see that happening do you?

As for my information... I stated on here that the 51GB discs were approved before the press reported it. I stated that Warners was up for sale before the press reported it.

I've got a pretty good idea of what is going on. Going into this weekend Warners had switched back to HD DVD and is likely to sign early next week and announce at CES like reported. The difference is they won't be alone. I hear another studio is about to make the plunge with them.