Could Warner Bros. Abandon HD DVD in 2008?

[DaViD Boulet]

I just heard an even more reliable rumor that new-line and Warner were going to go Blu-ray exclusive. Does that cancel your rumor out and result in a neutral position again???

Lotus, I've got an idea. How about we just don't post our un-confirmable rumors to keep the board clear of embarrassingly transparent FUD? Creditable information that can be substantiated with is always welcome, naturally.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet

I just heard an even more reliable rumor that new-line and Warner were going to go Blu-ray exclusive. Does that cancel your rumor out and result in a neutral position again???

Lotus, I've got an idea. How about we just don't post our un-confirmable rumors to keep the board clear of embarrassingly transparent FUD? Creditable information that can be substantiated with is always welcome, naturally.

I heard it from an Oscar nominated Director.... and the rumor will be proven false or true rather quickly. CES is right around the corner. He was specifically talking about one of his titles not going to BD because of this.

With hardware and software sales starting a turn towards HD DVD and Toshiba obviously throwing around more money trying to buy another Studio... it would make sense.

[Revko1]

Wow it's beginning to feel allot like AVS!

I can't wait for this format war comes to an end, prices are coming down pretty quick, both side are practically giving software away, so another 6month of this should be just enough..


Revko1

[JerryDelColliano]

Originally Posted by Revko1

Wow it's beginning to feel allot like AVS!

I can't wait for this format war comes to an end, prices are coming down pretty quick, both side are practically giving software away, so another 6month of this should be just enough..


Revko1

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You mean dorks wearing a Beret (the kind you CAN NOT FIND in a second hand store) are sitting in the corner making fun of people about what they think on AV?

Actually AVRevforum.com is WAY cooler than that.

[kennyt]

I for one am getting fed up with all the bickering and name calling on this thread.

Guys, calm down, put it back in your pants and agree to disagree.

NONE of us know what will happen, hell, even the exec's of Sony and Toshiba don't know what will happen yet. IF they did, they wouldn't be talking about it anyway! Both formats for now exist, and likely will for some time. Studios have already flipped and may well do so again before this ordeal is over and the dust settles Getting into written arguments over who's right and who's wrong is Sooooooo fourth grade, and attacking each other and name calling? I'm not even sure is that far evolved!

If anyone needs a Psychiatrist, it's likely ME! I have purchased five Blu-ray players and a few HD DVD players as well! Not to mention the a multitude of SACD and DVD-A players. Maybe I can find some audiophile 12 step program to save me some day but for now I'm OK with it....

My point is nothing matters until it plays out. I don't care what anyone says until they DO it, and fighting over rumors is quite frankly silly, so please guys, stop the half page posts yelling back and forth. Post your side, give your facts, but DO NOT personally attack each other because you disagree!

Listen to your teacher and play nice!

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by kennyt

I for one am getting fed up with all the bickering and name calling on this thread.

Guys, calm down, put it back in your pants and agree to disagree.

NONE of us know what will happen, hell, even the exec's of Sony and Toshiba don't know what will happen yet. IF they did, they wouldn't be talking about it anyway! Both formats for now exist, and likely will for some time. Studios have already flipped and may well do so again before this ordeal is over and the dust settles Getting into written arguments over who's right and who's wrong is Sooooooo fourth grade, and attacking each other and name calling? I'm not even sure is that far evolved!

If anyone needs a Psychiatrist, it's likely ME! I have purchased five Blu-ray players and a few HD DVD players as well! Not to mention the a multitude of SACD and DVD-A players. Maybe I can find some audiophile 12 step program to save me some day but for now I'm OK with it....

My point is nothing matters until it plays out. I don't care what anyone says until they DO it, and fighting over rumors is quite frankly silly, so please guys, stop the half page posts yelling back and forth. Post your side, give your facts, but DO NOT personally attack each other because you disagree!

Listen to your teacher and play nice!

You may need to see a shrink about that Kenny...

However it is ugly right now in Hollywood. Warner Brothers and New Line are both "for sale," to go exclusive. They claim that the stand alone hardware winner of the holiday season is a deciding factor. However they appear to be trying to make the best deal.

Think Paramount/Dreamworks but with the massive catalog of WB titles. I hear the magic number is around $200M for them, and $100M for New Line... so right now both sides are fighting for them and the winner will be who throws the most money at them.

Lions Gate is interested in money now too, and wow so are MGM and Disney. This is getting really ugly. WB and New Line are looking for money to go exclusive, and the other 3 mentioned are looking for money to stay exclusive or some money to go neutral.

If the numbers being circulated are accurate at all, and I believe from what I'm hearing they are accurate... it would cost Sony around $600M to grab all of them, and the same for Toshiba/MS.

What is likely to happen, is that Toshiba/MS will throw their money at WB, New Line, and MGM. Getting WB and New Line to go exclusive, and MGM to go neutral. MGM needs the income and Sony doesn't own enough stock to keep that move from happening. MGM also holds the UA titles like Bond.

Sony will put its money behind Disney, and that will cause FOX to say "me too," and then Sony will be paying FOX and Lions Gate to stay in the fold. They just won't offer the crazy money that MS seems willing to throw at WB, New Line, and MGM.

I understand the HD DVD side's plan of attack, the war was almost considered "over," then they got Paramount/Dreamworks to go exclusive and shake things up right when the biggest movie of the year hit (Transformers). Then they sell of their remaining stock of A2s for $98 and sell 90,000 in one weekend. Currently they have A3s going for around $185 everywhere (and $167 at Sears). Then they throw money at WB and New Line. The Catalog titles that WB has is amazing especially with Universal and Paramount already in your fold. Get LOTR out on HD DVD only, and that will move players.

An interesting conversation at a party last night threw out some very interesting data to me:

Disney is not the big gun you'd think they would be in the eyes of the people at the party last night. I heard a lot of "my kids have their titles on DVD, and they don't even have an HDTV, if it's for my viewing I'd be more interested in WB titles than Disney." That and the general thought that Disney would have to come around sooner or later if HD DVD was selling well.

The Good news for the both sides is that if WB does go exclusive there are plenty of titles currently available from them and the Harry Potter set will be out before any of that exclusive nonsense happens.

The thing is MS has around $20B in reserves they can use to throw around and try and "buy," this war. Just as they went and got many Sony exclusive software companies to go neutral for the 360 vs PS3 war. I believe Sony reserves are around $3B to $4B. MS obviously has the money to throw around for it. Toshiba would be helping out as well.