Could Warner Bros. Abandon HD DVD in 2008?

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by space2001

what this information is so wrong. The yields are around 85% stop spreading lies and misinformation.

Care to back up your information?

I can point to link after link of people in the industry discussing those numbers as recently as AUGUST. I find no information about this changing. So I asked for some information about it.

[JerryDelColliano]

EASY GUYS....

Let's keep the a cordial and professional debate.

We don't want to be the AVS Forum!!!!! :

With that said - it is IMPORTANT to back up statments with fact. While time consuming - it makes for a WAY more solid argument!!!!

Nevertheless - I love the dialog we have going here....

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by JerryDelColliano

EASY GUYS....

Let's keep the a cordial and professional debate.

We don't want to be the AVS Forum!!!!! :

With that said - it is IMPORTANT to back up statments with fact. While time consuming - it makes for a WAY more solid argument!!!!

Nevertheless - I love the dialog we have going here....

Jerry,

I fully understand. I refuse to post at AVS because I see how they treat everyone there. It's also not very well moderated. Moderators never step in and say what you just did, but instead let people continue to attack each other without data.

I can't post to links about hardware costs because that's my business. I know that Wal-Mart has a $149 HD DVD player in the works to be released under the MAGNAVOX label, and I know that is why the VENTURE player isn't being released at Wal-Mart (it would be $50 more as well).

The replication yield numbers can be found in post after post over at AVS by industry insiders talking about the 10% and near 40% yields. This goes back to August. I can't find a link saying those numbers have changed to the point that Panasonic or others are now replicating DL discs.

I can find links to Industry Insiders mentioning that only THREE replication lines were currently in use, and those from SEPTEMBER.

I don't think it's impossible, I've heard through the hardware side of things that discs with 40GB of data or so were able to replicate at close to 60%. I heard that back in June. Perhaps they've given FOX and DISNEY a limit to what can be put on the discs and with improvements have hit 85%.

I'm more than open to the possibility. I have no care in either camp. So I'd be happy to hear things have changed. I'd just like a link.

[Lotus]

I spoke today with someone who does a have a stake in this matter.

We were discussing Warners and what would be likely.

Some interesting points:

Sales on both sides are well below what Warners wants. They are starting to believe that picking a side might be a good thing.

What do both parties offer?

BD:

6 Million Units in homes. Ten times as many as the HD DVD camp.
Nearly 2 times the number of software sales.

HD DVD:
600k Units in homes. With officially 90,000+ Toshibas sold over this past weekend. Something like 20,000 360 Add Ons were sold too after the A2 was sold out.
The lower priced players for consumers.
Lower replication costs.
Rock Solid Standards.
EXTREMELY high compatibility ratings

What are both parties lacking?

BD:

Too expensive still for mainstream consumers.
EXTREMELY poor compatibility ratings
fluctuating standards

HD DVD:
30GB storage limitation. With the 51GB discs needing a FIRMWARE update to work on older players which would currently mean "every," player.
Lower Bandwidth restrictions.

Bottomline seems to be that the ever changing BD Standards are pushing Warners away. This past weekend did make an impression and supposedly Warners wasn't the only one interested. While Warners is thinking of picking a side, Lions Gate is considering neutrality again. They've been on the fence before.

Paramount's CTO still claims that the main reason for leaving was BD's changing standards and that it wasn't treating "early adopters," right.

It seems that it may be a very real concern for Studios right now. Do you guys think that HD DVD's solid foundation is really that big of a plus?

[DaViD Boulet]

30GB storage limitation. With the 51GB discs needing a FIRMWARE update to work on older players which would currently mean "every," player.

this is not confirmed. When Bill Hunt spoke with members of the DVD forum, they said just the opposite, that early players would likely *not* play 51GB discs even with firmware updates.

Naturally, we'll have to wait until 3-layer discs come to market to find out (no one can be 100% sure until the software is available to test). But indications from Toshiba and the DVD forum (who spoke with Hunt) indicated that it might not be a simple firmware update for existing hardware after all.

I should emphasize that even increasing HD DVD storage to 51GB doesn't fix HD DVD's other primary weakness: Bandwidth. It's one reason that TrueHD/lossless can't be included more often on HD DVD... not the lack of overall storage, but the competition with video bit-rate and secondary video streams.

Bottomline seems to be that the ever changing BD Standards are pushing Warners away. This past weekend did make an impression and supposedly Warners wasn't the only one interested. While Warners is thinking of picking a side, Lions Gate is considering neutrality again. They've been on the fence before.

For someone who targets one of BDs primary weaknesses as the necessity for firmware updates (a weakness I happen to agree with, as I find it a nuisance), it's ironic to list it as an advantage with HD DVD (proprting 51GB), considering that Blu-ray hardware have played 50GB from day one.

I do agree that all BD hardware should have mandated eithernet connectivity and that profile 2.0 should have been going from DAY ONE.

Of course, had all those manufacturers been interested in making HD DVD players, they would have put pressure on Toshiba to relaxe HD DVD specification requirements and Toshiba might have compromised just like the BD group did to get manufacturer buy-in. Nevertheless, compromise is bad. we both agree on that.

Paramount's CTO still claims that the main reason for leaving was BD's changing standards and that it wasn't treating "early adopters," right.

Shocking. You mean the studio hadn't publically declared it was the 150 million paid from Toshiba? The very same deal they tried to strike with WB which was refused? I'm surprised. I guess if Paramount doesn't publically state it was a decision based on financial incentives, then it must really be their altruistic motivations to make me as a consumer, happy.

Care to back up your information?

I can point to link after link of people in the industry discussing those numbers as recently as AUGUST. I find no information about this changing. So I asked for some information about it.

Insiders at AVS, on both sides of the format fence, have been comporting with the 85% yield rate for 50GB BD for months. Just do some searching over there.

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by Lotus

You're right, there EXIST many lines, but are they in use? Not to my knowledge. Last I checked (and it was over a month ago) there were only 3 replication lines IN USE, because most of them have a 10% yield. Even Sony's yields were around 38%.

Are you saying they finally found a solution to this problem?

If so, my apologies for not being up to date.

You're not up to date and it's by a heck of a lot longer than a month.
Panasonic has been pressing BD50 discs since the end of 2006, shortly after Sony did Click, Panasonic did Kingdom of Heaven.

They've been testing their BD50 line since 2005.

That 10% yield number is bull, plain and simple. Sony's yields on BD50's have been around 75% since LAST YEAR and are up around 80% right now.

http://sonydadc.com/opencms/opencms/...news_0020.html

Since Blu-ray Disc manufacturing began in Terre Haute in May ‘06, capacity and yield rates have consistently climbed.

"BD25 yield rates and machine output performance have exceeded our expectations.
Single layer yields are consistently around 85% and daily machine output levels are approaching parity with our DVD assets," said Mike Mitchell, EVP Sony DADC. "With regard to BD50, yields have increased steadily, and are consistently between 75% and 79%. Cycle times for BD50 have likewise been improved dramatically. As demand for both BD25 and BD50 increases and the production lines are run more consistently, we fully anticipate further yield improvements."

You've been reading too much posts from a certain disc reviewer, claiming to have inside contacts. I can assure you, he knows sweet F-All about the PDMC lab.