HD Disc Format War Not Over By a Long Shot

[Vinyl Rules!]

Originally Posted by Vinyl Rules!

Ken,

Your viewpoint is a minority viewpoint within the world of geeks. This is from a geek e-letter I subscribe to:

"After the news broke yesterday that HD DVD was about to raise the white flag, geek news site Slashdot.com put up an impromptu poll for its readers, asking, "Now That Blu-ray Has Won ...?"

* I'll Get A Player By Summer
* I'll Get A Player By the End of the Year
* Still Not Convinced HD is Worth It
* Holding Out For Downloads
* I Want My HD DVD
* My Media Is In CowboyNeal's Hands

Almost half of the 28,000 respondents at the time of this story's publishing said they still aren't convinced that high-definition DVD is worth the upgrade from traditional DVD technology. The next biggest group of respondents said they are still waiting for high-definition downloads. Geeks tend to be early adopters of technology, so this poll could be very telling."

Translation: The real geeks are not going to purchase many Blue Ray players or Blue Ray discs because (1) They don't care about the difference; and/or (2) They know the HD downloads are coming.

And I don't know why you keep hanging on to your bandwidth argument: Your thinking is just like that of Corning, the company that used to be the largest manufacturer of fibre optic cable in the world. 20 years ago they embarked on a major expansion of their plants as they envisioned a world where road right-of-ways would constantly be torn up and more and more fibre optic cable would be laid to accommodate the all those extra optical 0's and 1's that were going to be sent to business and residential customers.

But guess what? They got bit in the ass, big time, by a technology called "DWDM:" Dense Wave Digital Multiplexing. This technology multiplexes a optical light wave into hundreds of different "carriers" that can be sent down the same single strand of cable that could previously only carry a single lightwave. This paradigm shift came close to putting Corning out of business, they closed many of their plants, laid off thousands of employees, and have never fully recovered from DWDM's impact on their fibre optic cable business. They never saw it coming because they were so focused on their cable and not looking at how someone might pump more information over the cable.

I was helping one of the major Telcos develop and deploy SONET (Synchronous Optical Network) rings at the time and we could not believe Corning was so oblivious to the threat DWDM posed to their business model. And the companies that developed the early DWDM equipment were small enough they could have been acquired by Corning and we were doubly surprised they never acquired any of these DWDM companies. As a carrier, we had zero interest in laying more fibre optic cable when we could EXPONENTIALLY increase our bandwidth over our existing fibre optic cable with DWDM equipment. We understood this, and Corning never did, until it was too late for them.

Now, let me clue you in on a little secret. Once a company like Verizon has fibre running directly to your home, they can pump hundreds of extra channels at super-fast speeds into your home with deployment of DWDM equipment throughout their backbone. And DWDM equipment is dropping in price. Can you even remember when 9.6 kbs dial-up external modems cost $300? Now you cannot even give them away for scrap. A technology paradigm shift called DSLAMM's and DSL made dial-up redundant.

Same thing is going to happen to DSL speeds because of competition from cable, 3G, and 4G. In the metro markets, most of us will see significant speed increases every 18 to 24 months at no increase in cost.

Bandwidth costs are going to become insignificant as all of the major carriers build out their network in the rush to provide faster content of all types of media.

50MB to 100MB downloads will be here much sooner than you think, and they will be priced the same as the 5MB to 10MB speeds you are paying for now.

Don't believe me? Go to slashdot.com where the knowledgeable geeks hang out and see what they think.

Ken,

Not to pile on, but from ComputerWorld, another of those sites "infested" with Geeks who generally determine what becomes successful in the marketplace:

From ComputerWorld – 2/20/08

The Poll of the Week: Will the demise of HD DVD push you to buy a Blu-ray hi-def player?

13.2% - I win! I bought Blu-ray already.

10.3% - Too late, I bought HD DVD and I'm stuck.

8.8% - No, I'm waiting for hi-def downloads.

57.4% - No, I don't need a hi-def DVD player.

10.3% - What's HD DVD?

This poll is consistent with the Slashdot.com poll: Almost 2/3 of the respondents don't care about hi-rez DVD's or they are going to wait for the HD downloads.

Blue Ray will always be remembered for winning the battle but losing the war.

End of discussion and end of this thread.

[goldear]

Ken, I understand what you are saying (I should note all this happened a couple weeks back before the official announcement). That being said, I just don't see BD going any further, either...and if I want to at least take advantage of the technology, HD gives me more hard/software for my money at this time.

If BD survives, I only see it as a niche like LD. If we didn't get converts to High Rez A/V at the prices in the HD camp, what makes you think we're going to get more with the higher prices in the BD camp? Most people are satisifed with SD-DVD...and sadly those who aren't will be looking for downloads.

I never expected any of these technologies to last too long anyhow (neither will probably be here in five years); heck, I upgrade my SSPs on a more regular basis. But at least I can take advantage of this technology knowing I didn't spend alot. Just looking at these new polls doesn't bode well for the future. I just hope BD uses some common sense and takes advantage of this opening.

[prerich]

Originally Posted by goldear

Ken, I understand what you are saying (I should note all this happened a couple weeks back before the official announcement). That being said, I just don't see BD going any further, either...and if I want to at least take advantage of the technology, HD gives me more hard/software for my money at this time.

If BD survives, I only see it as a niche like LD. If we didn't get converts to High Rez A/V at the prices in the HD camp, what makes you think we're going to get more with the higher prices in the BD camp? Most people are satisifed with SD-DVD...and sadly those who aren't will be looking for downloads.

I never expected any of these technologies to last too long anyhow (neither will probably be here in five years); heck, I upgrade my SSPs on a more regular basis. But at least I can take advantage of this technology knowing I didn't spend alot. Just looking at these new polls doesn't bode well for the future. I just hope BD uses some common sense and takes advantage of this opening.

Newegg just dropped BD drive prices to $139 down from 189.00 when I bought mine - thats a $50.00 in a matter of months (bought mine in November if I'm correct or even December). The computer world has the right ideal - I've posted this on the Bluray forum - I believe BD will not die but transform into something else (pun intended with Transformers) But its the format that will remain - not the disc if you get what I mean. I said this on the forum - I believe that all physical media has a life of about 5 to 6 years now (see my thread - Download Dilema). That's why I opted to go PC with BD - my PC is always my test bed for new tech. If AMC made a nice BD I might buy it - with an 8 channel analog tube output stage - I'd work a second job for two months to get it then quit
When they discount HD-DVD's yes I will buy titles that I do not already have on DVD. I'm looking at this thing down the road and trying to be prepaired for whats next - while not wasting alot of money on what's now. Spent a total of $287.00 combined for hardware on both formats. I think I'm in a win win situation.

[goldear]

Kenny...BTW, the Panny BD30 that I said I was looking at for "new" between $360-$380 just a couple weeks ago ($449 just as recently as yesterday at Amazon), is now at $698 tonite (5 used/new for $549). In fact, I thought I recalled the retail on this only being listed as $599. In a matter of a few weeks they've added over $300 to this player--and these are suppposedly the low price finds. They better wise up.

[goldear]

Hey Prerich, see my post just above yours on how the Panny BD30 player has gone up $300 just in the past 3 weeks via Amazon. I was about to buy it for $371 when it jumped to $429 the next day. A week later, hoping it might have come down, I check and it was up to $449...were it pretty much stayed up until this week some time. Tonite, it is at $698 new, even though I could've sworn I saw the listed retail price as only $599 a couple weeks ago. HTPC may be my next stop.

[prerich]

Originally Posted by goldear

Hey Prerich, see my post just above yours on how the Panny BD30 player has gone up $300 just in the past 3 weeks via Amazon. I was about to buy it for $371 when it jumped to $429 the next day. A week later, hoping it might have come down, I check and it was up to $449...were it pretty much stayed up until this week some time. Tonite, it is at $698 new, even though I could've sworn I saw the listed retail price as only $599 a couple weeks ago. HTPC may be my next stop.

Give me a holla!!!! I'm a certified A+ Tech and I've been in HTPC for over 7 years!