HD Disc Format War Not Over By a Long Shot

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet

And if you took 20 seconds and explained to them the differences in sound quality between the two and what to look for, they'd hear the differences 100% of the time in double blind A/B listening.

This is most certainly true. Scientific studies have been done that show that the human ear can VERY easily tell the difference between the quality of MP3s and CDs. The difference between 448k and 1.5MB codecs is less so but still noticable. It's when you start looking at 1.5MB codecs to lossless that the human ear can't tell the difference on the majority of playback.

However Vinyl's arguement is that the "uneducated masses," who were tested did in fact show that around 90% can't NOTICE the difference. Hearing the difference and noticing the difference are two entirely different things.

As for his assumption that RENTED movies on VOD will do better than purchased films... they are two entirely different markets.

Right now about 1 in 10 people who buy a HDTV are buying a HDM player to go with it. The problem is the number is significantly less than 10% of the current HDTV owners are buying them. So while nearly 10% of new HDTV buyers are buying HDM the majority of HDTV owners aren't.

Still imho a planned base of 25% of the HDTV market for sales is a good PROFITABLE market if treated right.

I personally believe that will be MUCH bigger than Downloaded Content in the next 5 years. Why?

Because you have to get the internet connection to the TV. People aren't going to switch from watching movies on TVs to computers. So TVs will need that capability as well as the capability to store them.

Samsung has "XBOX LIVE MARKETPLACE," set top boxes coming out at the end of the summer. These will allow for the 720p downloads and bring downloadable content to the TV. I don't know how quickly they will catch on.

Then you still have the problem of getting the internet connection to the set top box/TV. 99% of houses aren't wired for it. So you're going to rely on wireless networks.

I just don't think the common consumer is that tech savy. So there are just a lot of hurdles for downloadable content to become a reality. VOD is entirely a different market since it's rentals.

[bootman]

Originally Posted by Vinyl Rules!

Bootman,

Statically significant research has validated that the over 95% of listeners cannot hear the difference between between 384 mHz MP3 downloads and the the 1.444 mHz native bit rate of CD's.

Go back and preruse my former posts: Joe and Susie cannot see any difference between 720p and 1080p on their $ 1,299 Wal-Mart LCD 42" display.

So where is the "big step backwards" if the consumers who have 90+% of the CE electronics power cannot see a differnce.

What alternative universe do you inhabit? There are many Blue-Ray and HD-DVD supporters who want to move there, ASAP!

Sounds like you are one of the very few who actually think they can hear and see a difference.

Guess what? The major manufacturers don't give a rat's tutu: As I've said before, you and everyone who believes as you do don't buy enough to pay Howard Stringer's salary.

Sorry, I thought this was an enthusiast site, not something geared to Joe and Susie watching a 42" LCD from 18 feet away.
I can easily tell the difference between 720p and 1080p because I do happen to have the right equipment to tell.
I must be in the wrong place here then.

As for not hearing differences in MP3 encoding, I can using high quality headphones, a good source and a good headphone amp.
Again, I'm not really your average Joe.

But there is nothing "revolutionary" about sub par HD downloads and low bit rate MP3s.
(as the site's name used to imply with new technology)

BTW why does vinyl rule IYO?
It isn't because of the sound quality right?

[bootman]

Originally Posted by kennyt

The bandwidth is already doable, it's just not reached a realistic price.

Before the end of the year ISPs will be offering a 50-100M package to consumers.
(FiOS does now, cable is gearing up)
The only problem is it will be for >$150 a month.
Are you signing up just to download HD films that you will probably just watch once?

Yeah, that will take off with the Walmart crowd.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by bootman

I can easily tell the difference between 720p and 1080p because I do happen to have the right equipment to tell.

Right but the majority of consumers don't. His point is about HDM's future and the simple fact that most HDTV owners are just fine with DVD.

I must be in the wrong place here then.

The majority of people who read the online mag and post here aren't "common," consumers and care about such things. How wonderful it is to get a straight up review about some truly great gear is well awesome, but that doesn't stop the fact that most consumers don't even know what "Krell," is or even "PSB."

As for not hearing differences in MP3 encoding, I can using high quality headphones, a good source and a good headphone amp.
Again, I'm not really your average Joe.

Again most people can HEAR the difference they just don't NOTICE the difference. They seem really happy with their horrible sounding compressed music on their iPods.

But there is nothing "revolutionary" about sub par HD downloads and low bit rate MP3s.
(as the site's name used to imply with new technology)

So we're not allow to talk about the marketability of a product based on the fact that the product sucks or is too good for normal people to notice/care?

[Vinyl Rules!]

Originally Posted by bootman

Before the end of the year ISPs will be offering a 50-100M package to consumers.
(FiOS does now, cable is gearing up)
The only problem is it will be for >$150 a month.
Are you signing up just to download HD films that you will probably just watch once?

Yeah, that will take off with the Walmart crowd.

Can you say the word "BUNDLE?"

One of my good friends has had FIOS now for over 6 months.

For $109.95/month he gets:

1. 15 meg Internet downloads
2. About 400 regular TV channels (He pays an extra $10 for some HBO feeds)
3. Local phone service with Caller ID, Voice Mail, and several other telephone features.
4. Unlimited domestic long-distance calling.

HD channels are available, for extra cost, but he is more into audio than video, so he has not made the transition to HDTV.

And VOD, in both SD and HD are available for prices ranging from $1.99/movie to $4.99/movie.

So tell me, "bootman," how much a month are you now paying for 1,2,3 and 4 above? And what is the download speed from your ISP?

My friend lives in the Tidewater Virginia area, and Verizon customers ordering FIOS now have to wait a month or more for a hookup, so at present, Verizon cannot keep up with demand for FIOS.

And another friend who worked for GTE before they were acquired by Bell Atlantic and became Verizon tells me their FIOS sales rates are actually better in lower-income neighborhoods than in the "ritzy" neighborhoods. And he tells me Verizon is frantically working to built out their infrastructure to deliver 100 meg downloads to all their FIOS customers in less than two years. They, too, believe the silver discs will go the way of vinyl discs and they want to have the infrastructure in place to deliver the download.

And if you are Sony or Fox, do you really care who delivers the download as long as you get paid for the download? Verizon expects their VOD business to grow exponentially over the next several years, they are going to offer both SD and HD downloads, and they are planning to charge a slight premium for the video enthusiasts who will view nothing but an HD download.

So, yes, I see a huge demand for all these services at the above prices from the "Walmart crowd." But the "Wallies" will probably not pay the extra buck or so for the HD download - They will be quite happy with an SD download.

Think about it - All Verizon has to do is deliver a VOD that looks as good as a regular DVD to a "Wallie."

[Lotus]

VOD is not comparable to HDM at all.

VOD is comparable to Block Buster. It has hurt BB's business model.

The biggest new hitch is the plan for VODs to be day and date with DVD Rental releases and DVDs being "sent" to the VOD buyer.