Onkyo drops HD DVD player...

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet

Good point. I'd be curious to see if they go combo or higher-end if/when we see future players.

I spoke with a rep today from them about all kinds of things and he mentioned that they have both a 2nd Gen HD DVD player that is based on the A35 drive and a Combo player based on the Ricoh drive. He said they've had BD units in R&D since the conception of the format. They believe that currently the market is too niche and cluttered.

I can definately see that angle. They are going to be the only non-Toshiba company for a while with a recognizable name producing HD DVD players.

The Combo still might not see the light of day either because he claimed that Marantz and Denon both had one in the works. This would mean LG, Samsung, Marantz, and Denon selling combo units for a niche market. It might be too cluttered for the green light.

[DaViD Boulet]

The Combo still might not see the light of day either because he claimed that Marantz and Denon both had one in the works. This would mean LG, Samsung, Marantz, and Denon selling combo units for a niche market. It might be too cluttered for the green light.

Either that, or if "combo players" start to become the common-place norm, then the tenor of the format "war" will shift to universal playback and every major manufacturer will have to abandon single-format players in favor of universal-disc hardware (especially if the cost of dual-format players begins to fall into "single format" price categories).

If the cost of dual-format players remains above $600 then it probably won't have a significant impact on the "war" dyamic. But it will be interesting to see what happens (or happens first): a single format emerging as an industry victor or universal players becoming... well... universal making the format-issue moot.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet

Either that, or if "combo players" start to become the common-place norm, then the tenor of the format "war" will shift to universal playback and every major manufacturer will have to abandon single-format players in favor of universal-disc hardware (especially if the cost of dual-format players begins to fall into "single format" price categories).

If the cost of dual-format players remains above $600 then it probably won't have a significant impact on the "war" dyamic. But it will be interesting to see what happens (or happens first): a single format emerging as an industry victor or universal players becoming... well... universal making the format-issue moot.

That won't happen. Universal Players wont become accepted until they can get around $300. By then the war will be over.

Unless something changes dramatically soon, HD DVD is pulling away. Those 3 to 1 hardware sales numbers (and that is player vs player, not addons or PS3s) are extremely significant because since the conception of the war nobody has had a better than 60% sales lead, not its growing.

If HD DVD reaches 1M (not counting addons) while BD is sitting on 600k to 700k worth of players (and it's more likely to be 1M to 500k a clear 2 to 1 advantage) the studios will start jumping.

Once BD loses the Studio edge the whole thing will collapse. Sony should have beaten the $$$ offer from MS and Toshiba to Paramount and Dreamworks.

[DaViD Boulet]

That won't happen. Universal Players wont become accepted until they can get around $300. By then the war will be over.

probably.

Unless something changes dramatically soon, HD DVD is pulling away. Those 3 to 1 hardware sales numbers (and that is player vs player, not addons or PS3s) are extremely significant because since the conception of the war nobody has had a better than 60% sales lead, not its growing.

If HD DVD reaches 1M (not counting addons) while BD is sitting on 600k to 700k worth of players (and it's more likely to be 1M to 500k a clear 2 to 1 advantage) the studios will start jumping.

Once BD loses the Studio edge the whole thing will collapse. Sony should have beaten the $$$ offer from MS and Toshiba to Paramount and Dreamworks.

Unless BD maintains its 3:1 software sales increase over HD DVD inspite of HD DVD's increased hardware sales numbers.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet

probably.



Unless BD maintains its 3:1 software sales increase over HD DVD inspite of HD DVD's increased hardware sales numbers.

That's not going to happen. The majority of the software is bought by standalone player owners. Those numbers aren't going to change. The question is, will standalone players increase at a rate that is better than PS3 sales.

In other words is the current increase in hardware sales for HD DVD good enough to slowly pick away at the 2 to 1 lead. One weeks numbers dont make the others go away.

The answer is more than likely. The numbers game shows that PS3s have to outnumber HD DVD players significantly to keep the sales edge. While PS3 sales are up they don't match the massive influx that happened within the first 3 months of the PS3 being out.

So the current spike in sales for HD DVD if it continues (and so far it appears to be) shows that HD DVD should at some point pass BD in Software sales. Unless the PS3 can start selling about 1M a month.

[DaViD Boulet]

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Lotus,

quick question on the Meridian HD DVD player. I just emailed Bob Stuart of Meridian asking about their support of HD DVD and if they had plans to release a combo or BD player as well. He wrote back and said that at this time they've not announced a product for *either* format:

"Thank you for taking the time to write to me. I am not sure where you read this, but Meridian has not yet made any announcements about for which, if any, formats it will build players. Certainly the battle still rages!"

What exactly is the source that's indicated that they are releasing an HD DVD player? The above comment was from Bob Stuart himself in an email to me this morning.