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Old 12-05-2007   #31
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Default Re: Blu-Ray wins on Black Friday week.

Well, see it how you will, the software sales (discluding games, 21 mil in BR Games), speak for themselves. Hardware, means nothing at this time. If it did, then HD would be leading in software sales. Right?

And as for the PS3's sales, i'm honestly not worried. The serious games that most PS3 owners and Sony fans purchased/will purchase their systems for, have yet to come out. The Gran Turismo series has sold an average of 10 mil units per version. Then, of course, there's the Final Fantasy series, Tekken series, Metal Gear Solid 4, Killzone 2 and so on.

Microsoft was great in getting their product out as fast as they could, which is confirmed with the failure rate of the hardware, and the lack of several key features that make it's ability to maintain in a rapidly evolving gaming industry much diminished in the face of the PS3's mandatory HDD and BR player. HDD and 25-50g disc's allow for less compression and streaming, allowing the machine to circumvent, to a certain degree RAM inadequacies (which both consoles suffer from). So, in the short run, the PS3 is trailing, in the long run, the PS3 will be the only console able to run the higher end games.

But, I digress, BR is still winning in overall sales. And I'm not just talking the US sales.

Last edited by Mornelithe; 12-05-2007 at 02:05 PM..
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Old 12-05-2007   #32
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Default Re: Blu-Ray wins on Black Friday week.

Dude, the PS3 hasn't lost the war, it's just getting started.
Next years releases of Gran Turismo 5 & Metal Gear Solid 4 will sell 1 million consoles each the week they are released.
There is a huge base of PS2 owners out there (120 million+) that haven't upgraded to a PS3 because they don't have a HDTV yet, you just watch the numbers spike after all the HDTV's bought this Christmas.
Sony has a lot of time to get the numbers up, they are still selling PS2 consoles & games & that is pure profit where MS has never made a profit on any Xbox.


As for all your other number crunching (spinning?) as long as Blu-Ray movies are out selling HD-DVD movies HD-DVD is in trouble, the fact they are behind 2-1 in movie sales even with all the stand alone's sold tells me they are in serious trouble!

Last edited by TheMoose; 12-05-2007 at 01:54 PM..
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Old 12-05-2007   #33
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Default Re: Blu-Ray wins on Black Friday week.

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Originally Posted by TheMoose View Post
As for all your other number crunching (spinning?) as long as Blu-Ray movies are out selling HD-DVD movies HD-DVD is in trouble, the fact they are behind 2-1 in movie sales even with all the stand alone's sold tells me they are in serious trouble!
Those numbers aren't in yet. Standalones had a 9% edge before November.

You also don't realise that 2 times nothing is NOTHING.

You think Studios care that BD has almost twice as much software sales?

They don't if they did, Paramount would have told MS to take a hike. When a movie does $300M in DVD sales but $3M in BD they dont exactly jump up and down in joy. They realize their other title that did $30M in DVD sales has only done $50K in BD sales.

When $50M can buy your loyalties to a format, that says that the other format is in serious trouble.

The real fact is that both are in serious trouble. The only glimpse of hope for either side is that one of them finally sold over 100,000 units in a month and is now selling in one week what they used to sell in an entire month and that doesn't look to change much.

That is not spinning thats just looking at it without blue glasses or red glasses on. All I see are numbers. You see Blue and others see Red. I see the numbers.

I think its screwed up that people say "spinning numbers," just because they point out factual mathmatic evidence that for BD to stay on top then PS3 sales have to be proportionate to the HD DVD sales boost. For BD to remain on top they must sell 7.7 times as many PS3s to each HD DVD player sold. They didn't do that in November. They may do that in December.

I just don't see them doing it. Software sales will change as long as the PS3 is incapable of keeping that lead. It was easy to do when only 18,000 units were being sold a month. 75,000 units a month will put pressure on PS3 sales.
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Old 12-05-2007   #34
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Default Re: Blu-Ray wins on Black Friday week.

I had a long discussion about the whole format 'war' with a veteran member of the audio business and we both had some similar feelings.

What REALLY made DVD (or for that matter CD) best the older formats (OK please don't all start attacking me about analog, I know vinyl is alive and well, this is just for a point)???

Convenience. Flat out simple convenience. DVD's don't have to be rewound, are smaller, and allow immediate access to scenes. CD's allowed immediate song access. Both these formats made everyones lives easier. You can not tell me the first CD players sounded better than vinyl, they had increased dynamics, but they were harsh and abrasive, still we all bought one for the convenience.

We all got into them as they made our life simpler to deal with. Sure we got better sound from DVD's, and ultimately (like recently) CD players have outdone vinyl even in many die hard vinyl guys minds.

Quality wasn't a factor in their adoption. It was convenience.

Look at SACD and DVD-A, markedly better sound than CD's, but they never took off. The setup was a problem, required new gear, lots of cables, and software was scarce.

Sure they still are making SACD's, and DVD'A still does exist, but how many and for how long??

Why did they fail?

One reason as I see it that they never penetrated the market is most people saw no real improvement to them. Sure us audiophiles bought players and all the discs we could, but we are a small market. To the average guy putting a disc into his boom box or simple system, he saw no improvement, it was still a disc, it still allowed access to tracks. It did cost more and have MC audio, but even many of us still question the surround formats (personally I love a good surround mix, but have many poorly done ones that I'd rather just hear in 2 channel).

OK, fast forward to Blu-ray vs HD DVD. what do they have in convenience over DVD? Sure they have markedly better picture quality, but if anything they are a step backwards in convenience. Firmware issues, slow load times, HDCP issues.....

Were is the improvement??

I think in reality both of these formats are merely a bridge until the next leap in internet bandwidth comes and we can all download 1080p with uncompressed audio in real time. Once this happens studios will be able to copy protect themselves as they want, and you won't need actual discs......

Once the discs disappear, you've added convenience..........

Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not the only one who thinks this....... I guess we'll have to wait and see!
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Old 12-05-2007   #35
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Default Re: Blu-Ray wins on Black Friday week.

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Convenience.
Well Kenny this point is certainly true. However I think music is an entirely different market that has always been ruled by convenience (the Walk-Man now Ipod). Where as video has always been about PQ and convenience (PiP, the success of HDTV, flat panels, etc).

Video seems to be "visual," and people seem to think prettier looking things are better than prettier sounding things.

Is there a market for the Next Gen video?

Yes. You have 30m+ HDTVs currently in homes, but only a combined 800,000 standalone next gen players. It is pointless to have HDTV if you have nothing to show on it. The majority of people don't have a lot of HDTV broadcasting to watch. Sports dominates that particular market currently. You got more High Def sports than quality High Def programming.

So the best way to get High Def in your home without the compression, etc. is through the Next Gen players.

There is a market, but in this case the "war," is far more detrimental. There is no "Evil Corporate *******," like there was in the DVD vs DIVX war. You don't have discs that turn off and you pay to watch them again. It's one format against the other and both appear to offer virtually the same performance.

While convenience is important I just don't see it being the leading point for purchasing in video. It seems to have much more importance in Audio.

The biggest problem with the consumers accepting the next gen formats has been the war and price. $200 has always been touted as the Holy Grail of price points. Now that has been reached and hardware sales are finally moving at old in the begining DVD rates.

HD DVD may just pick up in 2008. So far neither one has, and that is a shame.

SACD and DVD-A were just poorly executed. I can think of Dark Side of the Moon as one major title on either format. When the big guns don't get released on it, it's really hard to get out of the niche. I think MD had better titles originally.

Also don't forget that most people think CDs are over priced, thus the SACD was incredibly over priced.
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Old 12-05-2007   #36
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Talking Re: Blu-Ray wins on Black Friday week.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kennyt View Post
I had a long discussion about the whole format 'war' with a veteran member of the audio business and we both had some similar feelings.

What REALLY made DVD (or for that matter CD) best the older formats (OK please don't all start attacking me about analog, I know vinyl is alive and well, this is just for a point)???

Convenience. Flat out simple convenience. DVD's don't have to be rewound, are smaller, and allow immediate access to scenes. CD's allowed immediate song access. Both these formats made everyones lives easier. You can not tell me the first CD players sounded better than vinyl, they had increased dynamics, but they were harsh and abrasive, still we all bought one for the convenience.

We all got into them as they made our life simpler to deal with. Sure we got better sound from DVD's, and ultimately (like recently) CD players have outdone vinyl even in many die hard vinyl guys minds.

Quality wasn't a factor in their adoption. It was convenience.

Look at SACD and DVD-A, markedly better sound than CD's, but they never took off. The setup was a problem, required new gear, lots of cables, and software was scarce.

Sure they still are making SACD's, and DVD'A still does exist, but how many and for how long??

Why did they fail?

One reason as I see it that they never penetrated the market is most people saw no real improvement to them. Sure us audiophiles bought players and all the discs we could, but we are a small market. To the average guy putting a disc into his boom box or simple system, he saw no improvement, it was still a disc, it still allowed access to tracks. It did cost more and have MC audio, but even many of us still question the surround formats (personally I love a good surround mix, but have many poorly done ones that I'd rather just hear in 2 channel).

OK, fast forward to Blu-ray vs HD DVD. what do they have in convenience over DVD? Sure they have markedly better picture quality, but if anything they are a step backwards in convenience. Firmware issues, slow load times, HDCP issues.....

Were is the improvement??

I think in reality both of these formats are merely a bridge until the next leap in internet bandwidth comes and we can all download 1080p with uncompressed audio in real time. Once this happens studios will be able to copy protect themselves as they want, and you won't need actual discs......

Once the discs disappear, you've added convenience..........

Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not the only one who thinks this....... I guess we'll have to wait and see!

I agree with you 100% this is why I said before that movie downloads will be the next big step. I now own both formats (blu-ray and hd-dvd) but why - price first, then secondly integration with my computer (with AnyDVD HD you can rip your content to your HDD and play it from there) this = convienence. I love my stand alone hd-dvd and I use it a lot, but I also like the fact that if I want to watch a movie I can go to my HDD and play the .evo file (that's the hd-dvd file - I have yet to start ripping my blu-rays to my hdd). I think you are on to something here Kenny. I don't early adopt anymore unless I can get a convienent deal - Ohh - there goes that word again convenience....
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