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Old 12-04-2007   #25
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Default Re: Blu-Ray wins on Black Friday week.

Oh yeah, here's some more info for ya'll:

http://bluray.highdefdigest.com/news...yers_Sold/1228


Blu-ray looks like they've smacked the crap outta HD, of course, with both sides playing with their figures, who knows what the true # is. Bottom line though, PS3 is making this a very lopsided 'war'.


Brian
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Old 12-04-2007   #26
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Default Re: Blu-Ray wins on Black Friday week.

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Originally Posted by Mornelithe View Post
Oh yeah, here's some more info for ya'll:

http://bluray.highdefdigest.com/news...yers_Sold/1228


Blu-ray looks like they've smacked the crap outta HD, of course, with both sides playing with their figures, who knows what the true # is. Bottom line though, PS3 is making this a very lopsided 'war'.


Brian

Is the PS3 really getting beaten that bad here in the states? Only 2.4M PS3s sold? They are getting it handed to them by MS and Nintendo. That isn't even competitive. So they claim to be positive they will have 11M sold worldwide by Dec. 31st.

That means what only 3M in the US? They are seriously getting it handed to them. They sold 1M units last year, but only 1.4M units since then? That is horrible. They've shipped something like 9M units in the US to date. That means 6.6M units on shelves? Nearly 3 times the total number sold since November last year? That is scary bad.

Neither side is playing with figures they're just counting both. If you don't count both the number is around 480,000 to 310,000. Since we knew from other sources that the number was 420,000 to 290,000. We also know the week of Black Friday that 60,000 HD DVD players were sold to the 20,000 BD players.

HD DVD is killing BD in non-console related hardware sales. So they have to add the PS3 to look good. The HD DVD PRG will announce the non-add ons at 500,000 units likely next week once it's official then they'll state that 1M total has been reached by the end of the year (with about 600,000 of them stand alones).
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Old 12-05-2007   #27
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Default Re: Blu-Ray wins on Black Friday week.

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Originally Posted by Lotus View Post
Is the PS3 really getting beaten that bad here in the states? Only 2.4M PS3s sold? They are getting it handed to them by MS and Nintendo. That isn't even competitive. So they claim to be positive they will have 11M sold worldwide by Dec. 31st.

That means what only 3M in the US? They are seriously getting it handed to them. They sold 1M units last year, but only 1.4M units since then? That is horrible. They've shipped something like 9M units in the US to date. That means 6.6M units on shelves? Nearly 3 times the total number sold since November last year? That is scary bad.

Neither side is playing with figures they're just counting both. If you don't count both the number is around 480,000 to 310,000. Since we knew from other sources that the number was 420,000 to 290,000. We also know the week of Black Friday that 60,000 HD DVD players were sold to the 20,000 BD players.

HD DVD is killing BD in non-console related hardware sales. So they have to add the PS3 to look good. The HD DVD PRG will announce the non-add ons at 500,000 units likely next week once it's official then they'll state that 1M total has been reached by the end of the year (with about 600,000 of them stand alones).

I actually wasn't referring to the console #'s (and the console makers do play with the numbers), I was referring the the BR/HD-DVD #'s. Both sides are playing with their numbers, as are you, since you continue to exclude the PS3 from the overall hardware figures for the HD war, and that the most recent numbers for HD-DVD do include the HD-DVD attachment rates for the 360. Anyone with an ounce of a brain, would choose a $400 PS3, that has the ability to do more than just play movies, over a stand-alone player that would cost more (BR anyway, HD is cheaper, but who cares, HD's getting stomped). Seems perfectly reasonable to me. I'm not really sure why it's acceptable to include one, while discluding the other. Who knows, regardless, Microsoft and Toshiba lost this war because they made the HD-DVD drive optional to the Xbox. Had they made it a standard for all models, not only would they be leading the HD market, but they would've allowed themselves to have the staying power that the PS3 has, with regards to gaming. Either way, Blu-Ray is dominating hard - Here's how Australia is shaping up:

http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=724


If you keep discluding PS3, due to it's multiple uses, then I really think this is a biased discussion. Blu-Ray is winning in sales. There are more machines out there capable of playing Blu-Ray movies. Blu-Ray is dominating in Europe, and Australia in the very least, most likely Japan as well. As the price cut to the PS3 sinks in, and the Xmas season heats up. More BR players will be shipped, and the lead will continue to grow.

Brian

Oh yeah, and I guess we compare the numbers of PS3 vs Xbox 360, as it pertains to this discussion. Your numbers definitely reflect that the Xbox360 has been out a year longer, and has had more time for developers to familiarize themselves with optimizing it's hardware. However, if we examine the numbers more closely, with regards to this discussion, the current attachment rate for PS3 to Xbox360 w/ the HD drive, is 9 to 1 in Blu-Ray's favor, and considering the amount of PS3's on the market, that's a staggering market penetration for Blu-Ray, in the first year of it's infancy. And the software sales are reflectant of that disparity between the two formats.

Brian

Last edited by Mornelithe; 12-05-2007 at 10:49 AM..
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Old 12-05-2007   #28
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Default Re: Blu-Ray wins on Black Friday week.

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HD DVD is killing BD in non-console related hardware sales. So they have to add the PS3 to look good. The HD DVD PRG will announce the non-add ons at 500,000 units likely next week once it's official then they'll state that 1M total has been reached by the end of the year (with about 600,000 of them stand alones).
The comparison of PS3 "gaming" sales against other gaming consoles has nothing to do with how the number of PS3 sales, which is much larger than HD DVD or BD stand-alone player sales, might impact competition between high-def format software sales. That's obvious. If it's fair to talk about the 360 add-on then its fair to talk about the PS3.
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Old 12-05-2007   #29
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Default Re: Blu-Ray wins on Black Friday week.

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Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet View Post
The comparison of PS3 "gaming" sales against other gaming consoles has nothing to do with how the number of PS3 sales, which is much larger than HD DVD or BD stand-alone player sales, might impact competition between high-def format software sales. That's obvious. If it's fair to talk about the 360 add-on then its fair to talk about the PS3.
I'm not talking about the addon. The addon does in fact not have the attachment rate of a stand alone player. So why use it?

The PS3 is a gaming console that happens to play BDs. I never considered the PS2 a DVD player. I know it could play DVDs but I never thought of it as one. Just as I never hear anyone talking about the 360 being a DVD player...

I just find it stunning that Sony lost the console war so badly. They are getting pummelled. More copies of Halo 3 sold than PS3s. That to me is a major surprise.

What you forget is that Sony is relying on the PS3 to do well in console sales to promote BD. While it has worked early on the PS3 sales have been so horrible that it doesn't paint a pretty future. Sure they dropped the price and you have holiday sales numbers making Sony happy. I know what will happen come February 33% of the sales now, and it will stay that way with occassional spikes all the way until October or so of next year.

The 360 is outselling the PS3 right now and in holiday sales as well. So the 360 is going to continue to grow its advantage while the Wii continues to fly off the charts. What is this going to do to the PS3? At some point the game makers will decide that the 360 and Wii are where it is at. The gamers will makes the same decision. The 360 is where it is at, and then PS3 sales will stutter more.

Gaming consoles get the back of the public turned to them fast. So the PS3 could die in the water faster than most people realize. So if PS3 numbers drop again (and they likely will) and become abysmal (its not looking good 2 price drops in 6 months?) What does that mean to BD?

It's all about proportionate sales. HD DVD was beating BD until the PS3 came out. Then it slipped to a 1:85 to 1 software lead (last official numbers for the year). However when that was going on HD DVD players were selling at around 18,000 units a month (just standalone players no addons). Meanwhile BD players were being moved at around 16,500 a month. PS3s at 140,000 a month. Addons at 26,000 a month. 44,000 HD DVD players vs 156,500 BD players. Nearly 3 to 1.

Now look at November: HD DVD Players 150,000 players, 32,000 addons: 182,000 HD DVD players. 23,000 BD players, 280,000 PS3s: 303,000 BD players. Not quite the same proportions is it?

December will look better for BD with PS3 sales likely around 500,000. However HD DVD players are expected to sell around 100,000. The addon another 30,000. BD players are expect to sell around 30,000.

The big difference is that until November the standalone player numbers were about equal with HD DVD having a slight edge. Those days appear to be gone, since the big Toshiba give away the numbers have been 18,000 to 20,000 a week vs a month. Meanwhile BD isn't getting those numbers.

This won't stop in January. While I expect the numbers to drop some, they will likely still outsell the BD player competition at a 3 to 1 rate.

Will the PS3 numbers increase to handle that change in the market?

Not likely.

Which means that software sales numbers will start to slowly change around February and March and the war will become heated. However if hardware sales continue down the current path then around May or June HD DVD will overtake BD in software sales.

I'm not the only person thinking this. There are market research groups who are now saying that HD DVD may just win if the current market trends in hardware hold. Parks Associates a longtime "BD will win we guarantee it," market research firm is now saying "we may have been wrong, but who would have foreseen the Paramount/Dreamworks buyout or the $98 give away plus $199 Toshiba players."

What is sad and it's a strong point:

Neither format is reaching expectations including the extremely low ones set months ago.

For instance standalone HD DVD players were supposed to be at 900,000 sold by years end (will be around 580 to 600k when done) and BD was supposed to be at 600,000 (will be around 350 to 400k when done).

The difference is there so firms got that right, but the overall numbers are still not meeting expectations even after they've been lowered time and time again.

The formats are both for the most part failures.

However HD DVD finally got the market push thanks to the $98 sale and the $199 player. They've turned the corner and are starting to sell 5 digits a week instead of 4. BD is still stuck in the slow movement category.

While the PS3 is selling, will it sell proportionately enough?
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Old 12-05-2007   #30
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Default Re: Blu-Ray wins on Black Friday week.

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Originally Posted by Mornelithe View Post

Oh yeah, and I guess we compare the numbers of PS3 vs Xbox 360, as it pertains to this discussion. Your numbers definitely reflect that the Xbox360 has been out a year longer, and has had more time for developers to familiarize themselves with optimizing it's hardware. However, if we examine the numbers more closely, with regards to this discussion, the current attachment rate for PS3 to Xbox360 w/ the HD drive, is 9 to 1 in Blu-Ray's favor, and considering the amount of PS3's on the market, that's a staggering market penetration for Blu-Ray, in the first year of it's infancy. And the software sales are reflectant of that disparity between the two formats.

Brian
Actually the software numbers when you break it down just show how poorly BD is doing. They have a staggering lead in hardware when the PS3 is considered but not even a 2 to 1 edge in software (1.85 to 1 to be exact). They have a nearly 4 to 1 advantage in total hardware units but only a nearly 2 to 1 software lead?

Pointing to the Black Friday software sales isn't fair either. That would be like a HD DVD backer pointing to the week of Transformers as a strong market indicator. It's not. BD had a big release Die Hard 4 which sold nearly 100,000 copies. HD DVD had Oceans 13 but that was also released on BD. The succeess of Die Hard 4 really distorts the picture.

So yearly sales to date are the best to look at, and clearly BD does not have a big lead. Because twice of nothing is still nothing to the Studios. Even combined their sales aren't enough to make any Studio happy in the slightest. They're both failures.

That may change with HD DVD picking up sales in hardware. If as most analysts are now predicting they will hold a 3 to 1 hardware monthly sales edge (vs the old 9% sales edge) then they should start getting a decent hold on the market by mid 2008. At that point Studios should start moving around. Which will increase sales more and just maybe a Next Gen format may break out and move some units in the hundreds of thousands category and then possibly in the millions a month category.

Once one reaches a million units in a month you can declare that one a real winner, because then the Studios will all jump on its back and try and get the public to replace their DVD collections.

When BD's greatest month ever will be likely December and 35,000 units moved... that is not a winner of anything.
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