Blu-Ray wins on Black Friday week.

[DC solah]

One indication of the market tilting one way or the other that I haven't seen much about yet involves inistallation of equipment in some of the places we now take DVD players for granted. How many people out there never consider travelling without their laptops or portable players in tow? Moreover, when are we going to see a commitment by car makers like Honda, Toyota, and Chrysler to put a new type of player in their minivans for all the kiddies to watch? What good does it have to own Spider-man, Shrek or Pirates in HD/BR if you can't watch it on the way to Grandma's for the holidays?

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet

is this a joke? You support HD DVD with a passionate vengence, leaving no room in any of your posts for any BD sympathies. Have you been reading your own posts?

You see I don't support HD DVD. I never have, but I've had to argue with people about everything from the use of the word data to the truth about replication costs. It's just that some of these BD backers are so strong willed they deny the truth for absurd reasons which makes me argue with them.

I wish MS hadn't bought Paramount and Dreamworks. Then I'd be owning the Denon player and be patiently waiting until the Spring for Universal BD titles. That however didn't happen so I have a combo player (or will next week had to give the loaner back this morning).

Now I see the writing on the wall. Stand Alone player numbers in September looked like 290k vs 270k with BD catching up. Today it's 450k vs 300k. 120k for HD DVD was just in this month.

They expect to match that in the holiday season, while the BD side is expecting 40k in sales between now and the end of the year. If Disney is counting Addons in the standalone category like the HD DVD Promotional Group is then I'd say we should hear something in early 2008 about them going neutral. Because MS is expecting to sell another 50k addons before the year is out. That would put the numbers at 920K for years end, that magic 1M isn't far off.

If however Disney doesn't count them (and they shouldn't) then we likely won't see the 1M mark get hit until May or June. That is if Toshiba doesn't try and sell another 90k in a week with another massive one day only sale.

The problem for BD is that when HD DVD hits 1M stand alone players the BD side will be lucky to be at 600k and more than likely will be around 500k. Twice as many stand alone players will affect sales of software. BD has to hope that PS3 sales continue with their current strength past the holiday season. The way the market trends work is that once one picks up legitimate steam it starts to further out pace the competition. So the salesman at Retail X will say "We sell more HD DVD players so if you're trying to choose who will win, we sell more of them," and then the fence sitter picks the trendy horse.

So if the trend continues around March or so HD DVD will start picking up possible BD buyers and BD numbers will start degrading.

Of course many things could change that, for instance the BD side could get a $299 MSRP player of their own out. BD could buy WB and New Line. HD DVD could do the same. I will say this if there is a major Studio switch in the next 3 months whomevers side it is on will win. That will likely be the dam breaker.

I just don't have much hope for BD. MS and Toshiba have already shown they're willing to spend money that Sony is not to get Studios. If MS and Toshiba buy another Studio it will only push their current momentum lead forward.

BD backers love to point to the software sales as a reason for being excited about the market. I just can't do that. Last year at this time HD DVD did the same thing, but I said "Wait until the PS3 skewers the numbers all up," and it took awhile. However mid to late January BD finally took over software sales and has never looked back. That was until Paramount/Dreamworks were bought.

Hardware sales are truly the deciding factor early in a format war, and this war is still in the infant stages. Look at DVD vs DIVX. DVD got to 1M players fast and Disney and FOX being the giant DIVX lovers they were jumped ship. FOX was the most reluctant to do so, and I figure this will be the same way.

In software BD won Black Friday by a huge 3 to 1 lead. In Hardware they lost by a huge 3 to 1 lead. The PS3 will have amazing holiday sales as will all consoles, game machines sell for Christmas. However in February will the PS3 be able to continue it's current trend? Because the PS3 is the only thing keeping BD in the game.

Which is funny because many gaming industry people think BD being in the PS3 is what has kept the PS3 from winning the console war. A DVD player in the unit and the unit would be priced equal to the 360 and the Sony console name would have won out.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by DC solah

One indication of the market tilting one way or the other that I haven't seen much about yet involves inistallation of equipment in some of the places we now take DVD players for granted. How many people out there never consider travelling without their laptops or portable players in tow? Moreover, when are we going to see a commitment by car makers like Honda, Toyota, and Chrysler to put a new type of player in their minivans for all the kiddies to watch? What good does it have to own Spider-man, Shrek or Pirates in HD/BR if you can't watch it on the way to Grandma's for the holidays?

This is a good point, but to be honest how long did it take to get DVD players in the vehicles? Those didn't really start showing up until what 2004 as an option on most family vehicles? That is 7 years into the DVD cycle.

Knowing how much markup they put in them we wont see it until they can put a unit in a vehicle for $300 and then charge $1500 for the option. So we're a ways off.

[Mornelithe]

In my opinion, Microsoft and Toshiba lost this war when MS made the HD attachment to the 360 optional, as is shown with the PS3 outselling the Xbox 360 + HD Attachment 9-1. You can call the PS3 a gaming console, if you so desire, but the facts are that Sony had much more in mind than just gaming when they created the PS3. So, the simple fact remains that a multi-purpose product, that includes HD support, on a medium that holds the largest amount currently, is helping the BR camp dominate the HD camp. I fail to see how this is a surprise to anyone.


Brian

Additionally, if we're talking numbers, the recent creation of the 4-layer 100g Blu-Ray disc, and the announcement of the 8-layer 200g Blu-ray disc, are quite promising for the BR camp. Oh yeah, and BR hit the 1M mark in Europe for sales. That number, did not include PS3 software titles which would've added another 21M to that total. But, they aren't movies (Unless you count Heavenly Sword), so not applicable.


http://www.networkworld.com/news/2004/0921sonyisde.html - For more info.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by Mornelithe

In my opinion, Microsoft and Toshiba lost this war when MS made the HD attachment to the 360 optional, as is shown with the PS3 outselling the Xbox 360 + HD Attachment 9-1. You can call the PS3 a gaming console, if you so desire, but the facts are that Sony had much more in mind than just gaming when they created the PS3. So, the simple fact remains that a multi-purpose product, that includes HD support, on a medium that holds the largest amount currently, is helping the BR camp dominate the HD camp. I fail to see how this is a surprise to anyone.


Brian

Additionally, if we're talking numbers, the recent creation of the 4-layer 100g Blu-Ray disc, and the announcement of the 8-layer 200g Blu-ray disc, are quite promising for the BR camp. Oh yeah, and BR hit the 1M mark in Europe for sales. That number, did not include PS3 software titles which would've added another 21M to that total. But, they aren't movies (Unless you count Heavenly Sword), so not applicable.


http://www.networkworld.com/news/2004/0921sonyisde.html - For more info.

Right Sony added BD to the PS3 and because of that are in 3rd place in consoles. They aren't winning that war and they aren't going to unless something happens. In fact I'd say it has hindered it.

The 100GB and 200GB discs are nice for storage. That could help BD in the computer market and should if they can get burners out at an affordable price that burn affordable 200GB discs.

Is it going to matter to the home media market? Not really. I think everyone can admit that 50GB is about all you need to fill a title up with a nice video transfer, a couple nice audio transfers, some compressed audio transfers, and loads of extras.

Would it help to put more episodes of a TV series on one disc? YES. Will it matter with movies? Nope.

So with HD DVD showcasing the 51GB discs at CES they'll be on an even playing field with disc size. Plus the 34GB discs will be popular as well.

BD is not dominating anything. A near 2 to 1 software sales edge for the year is not domination. In hardware they're currently behind by 33% in total sales to date in stand alone players. That number is growing every week.

The PS3 worked to make sure that BD won't die like the other formats Sony had before it. However it hasn't made them dominate or win.

Cheap players are going to decide this silly war. Right now the A3 is selling for around $180 online and $200 at stores. Stores are still making money selling them at $200. Toshiba has the ability to drop the MSRP to $200 and sell the unit for $120 to dealers and still be in the black. That will happen before the A4 comes out, and that will likely be the unit that hits the under $150 price point that will end the war.

Cheap sells. It's a shame because I cared more about bitstream than disc size.

[TheMoose]

Originally Posted by Lotus

First I believe it's been shown that people with Addons do not buy at the same rate as a stand alone player, just as those who use the PS3 as such still mostly use it for games.

Well I use the PS3 for games & Blu-Ray (My only Blu-Ray player for now) & have somewhere around 70 Blu-Ray movies.
I also know several people who also have the PS3 & have as many movies as I do in Blu-Ray.
What does that do to your theory?