Lotus you are absolutely correct. What are the chances of that so called studio coming into the hddvd fold or even being outright purchased by Microsoft as you hinted at? If that happens what are the chances that the other bigger studio will go neutral? You mentioned Toshiba and the hddvd prg were going all out after 2 studios which to survive they really need to. There is no question.
In case you hadn't noticed, Microsoft no longer exclusively supports HD DVD and has retracted their financial backing. Goggle to see Bill Gates own comments about MS's format neutrality after Warner's announcement. He went to far as to say that MS would provide a blu-ray add-on for the 360 if consumer demand warranted it.
Hopefully Unviersal and Paramount will go blu/purple sooner than later (end of 2008 at the latest), and then the forum can be free from this sort of baseless FUD as your statements above.