Originally Posted by TheMoose
What I find interesting is the 61%-39% overall win for BD on a week that had HD-DVD releasing a big blockbuster, didn't Lotus predict an over all win for HD-DVD because of Bourne?
The real numbers appear to be around 58% to 42%. I predicted that Bourne would muddy the normal numbers because it was a big hit.
It's not a big secret that BD had much better Holiday releases than HD DVD. Whenever a big release comes out it screws with the natural order in the numbers. Bourne counteracted the BD releases.
Warners has made their decision so it doesn't appear to matter anymore. You BD guys did a poor job of buying Warners titles. That or your lead really is 20% at best according to Videoscan. Warners has different and more accurate numbers (they get Wal-Mart and internet site numbers).
Then you got Blade Runner losing dramatically on BD because of replication issues and the title not getting enough numbers out to counteract HD DVD sales.
BD just didn't do a good job to convince Warners that BD is healthier. You outnumber HD DVD by 4 to 1, yet you can't do better than 20% according to videoscan? That is the number Disney is looking at. They're seriously considering go neutral in 1Q 2008. Do you think 20% is enough to keep them BD exclusive?
or is Disney going to look at that 20% and then look at the hardware numbers that HD DVD is pulling in. HD DVD is pulling away for the first time in hardware. Software sales are 20% better for BD at best and losing on certain titles (Planet Earth) (in the exclusive camp which is all that matters to Warner or those considering neutrality).
Going neutral is looking better and better for everyone. If Disney makes that move then it will signal the upcoming doom of the war. Unilateral releases on both formats clears a path for consumers to make a decision between the two without worrying about their favorite titles never being released on their chosen format.