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Old 12-05-2007   #30
Super Member
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Texas
Posts: 938
Default Re: Blu-Ray wins on Black Friday week.

Originally Posted by Mornelithe View Post

Oh yeah, and I guess we compare the numbers of PS3 vs Xbox 360, as it pertains to this discussion. Your numbers definitely reflect that the Xbox360 has been out a year longer, and has had more time for developers to familiarize themselves with optimizing it's hardware. However, if we examine the numbers more closely, with regards to this discussion, the current attachment rate for PS3 to Xbox360 w/ the HD drive, is 9 to 1 in Blu-Ray's favor, and considering the amount of PS3's on the market, that's a staggering market penetration for Blu-Ray, in the first year of it's infancy. And the software sales are reflectant of that disparity between the two formats.

Actually the software numbers when you break it down just show how poorly BD is doing. They have a staggering lead in hardware when the PS3 is considered but not even a 2 to 1 edge in software (1.85 to 1 to be exact). They have a nearly 4 to 1 advantage in total hardware units but only a nearly 2 to 1 software lead?

Pointing to the Black Friday software sales isn't fair either. That would be like a HD DVD backer pointing to the week of Transformers as a strong market indicator. It's not. BD had a big release Die Hard 4 which sold nearly 100,000 copies. HD DVD had Oceans 13 but that was also released on BD. The succeess of Die Hard 4 really distorts the picture.

So yearly sales to date are the best to look at, and clearly BD does not have a big lead. Because twice of nothing is still nothing to the Studios. Even combined their sales aren't enough to make any Studio happy in the slightest. They're both failures.

That may change with HD DVD picking up sales in hardware. If as most analysts are now predicting they will hold a 3 to 1 hardware monthly sales edge (vs the old 9% sales edge) then they should start getting a decent hold on the market by mid 2008. At that point Studios should start moving around. Which will increase sales more and just maybe a Next Gen format may break out and move some units in the hundreds of thousands category and then possibly in the millions a month category.

Once one reaches a million units in a month you can declare that one a real winner, because then the Studios will all jump on its back and try and get the public to replace their DVD collections.

When BD's greatest month ever will be likely December and 35,000 units moved... that is not a winner of anything.
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