Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet
The comparison of PS3 "gaming" sales against other gaming consoles has nothing to do with how the number of PS3 sales, which is much larger than HD DVD or BD stand-alone player sales, might impact competition between high-def format software sales. That's obvious. If it's fair to talk about the 360 add-on then its fair to talk about the PS3.
I'm not talking about the addon. The addon does in fact not have the attachment rate of a stand alone player. So why use it?
The PS3 is a gaming console that happens to play BDs. I never considered the PS2 a DVD player. I know it could play DVDs but I never thought of it as one. Just as I never hear anyone talking about the 360 being a DVD player...
I just find it stunning that Sony lost the console war so badly. They are getting pummelled. More copies of Halo 3 sold than PS3s. That to me is a major surprise.
What you forget is that Sony is relying on the PS3 to do well in console sales to promote BD. While it has worked early on the PS3 sales have been so horrible that it doesn't paint a pretty future. Sure they dropped the price and you have holiday sales numbers making Sony happy. I know what will happen come February 33% of the sales now, and it will stay that way with occassional spikes all the way until October or so of next year.
The 360 is outselling the PS3 right now and in holiday sales as well. So the 360 is going to continue to grow its advantage while the Wii continues to fly off the charts. What is this going to do to the PS3? At some point the game makers will decide that the 360 and Wii are where it is at. The gamers will makes the same decision. The 360 is where it is at, and then PS3 sales will stutter more.
Gaming consoles get the back of the public turned to them fast. So the PS3 could die in the water faster than most people realize. So if PS3 numbers drop again (and they likely will) and become abysmal (its not looking good 2 price drops in 6 months?) What does that mean to BD?
It's all about proportionate sales. HD DVD was beating BD until the PS3 came out. Then it slipped to a 1:85 to 1 software lead (last official numbers for the year). However when that was going on HD DVD players were selling at around 18,000 units a month (just standalone players no addons). Meanwhile BD players were being moved at around 16,500 a month. PS3s at 140,000 a month. Addons at 26,000 a month. 44,000 HD DVD players vs 156,500 BD players. Nearly 3 to 1.
Now look at November: HD DVD Players 150,000 players, 32,000 addons: 182,000 HD DVD players. 23,000 BD players, 280,000 PS3s: 303,000 BD players. Not quite the same proportions is it?
December will look better for BD with PS3 sales likely around 500,000. However HD DVD players are expected to sell around 100,000. The addon another 30,000. BD players are expect to sell around 30,000.
The big difference is that until November the standalone player numbers were about equal with HD DVD having a slight edge. Those days appear to be gone, since the big Toshiba give away the numbers have been 18,000 to 20,000 a week vs a month. Meanwhile BD isn't getting those numbers.
This won't stop in January. While I expect the numbers to drop some, they will likely still outsell the BD player competition at a 3 to 1 rate.
Will the PS3 numbers increase to handle that change in the market?
Which means that software sales numbers will start to slowly change around February and March and the war will become heated. However if hardware sales continue down the current path then around May or June HD DVD will overtake BD in software sales.
I'm not the only person thinking this. There are market research groups who are now saying that HD DVD may just win if the current market trends in hardware hold. Parks Associates a longtime "BD will win we guarantee it," market research firm is now saying "we may have been wrong, but who would have foreseen the Paramount/Dreamworks buyout or the $98 give away plus $199 Toshiba players."
What is sad and it's a strong point:
Neither format is reaching expectations including the extremely low ones set months ago.
For instance standalone HD DVD players were supposed to be at 900,000 sold by years end (will be around 580 to 600k when done) and BD was supposed to be at 600,000 (will be around 350 to 400k when done).
The difference is there so firms got that right, but the overall numbers are still not meeting expectations even after they've been lowered time and time again.
The formats are both for the most part failures.
However HD DVD finally got the market push thanks to the $98 sale and the $199 player. They've turned the corner and are starting to sell 5 digits a week instead of 4. BD is still stuck in the slow movement category.
While the PS3 is selling, will it sell proportionately enough?