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Old 11-30-2007   #11
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Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Texas
Posts: 938
Default Re: Blu-Ray wins on Black Friday week.

Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet View Post
On *average*, stand-alones have higher attach rates with disc sales compared to the huge number of PS3s in homes. However, if one could track sales to those with PS3 who are collecting/buying HD discs, it's probably about the same... just like folks with the 360 add-on are buying movies at the same rate as those with stand-alone HD DVD hardware.

The catch with the PS3 is that you can't know for sure how many PS3s are being used for significant movie playback because all PS3s play BDs. whereas only 360's with the "add on" play HD DVDs (and you can track the add-on sales to know that number).

The bottom line for a studio is how much software they are selling. Whether that's one person buying a million discs or a million people buying 1 disc makes no difference.
First I believe it's been shown that people with Addons do not buy at the same rate as a stand alone player, just as those who use the PS3 as such still mostly use it for games.

Second you're crazy if you think a Studio even considers 1 person buying 1M units. Studios care about reality. They spend millions on research groups to go out and find them realistic numbers. Studios have a number of units they want to sell of every title. They have a promised land they want to reach. The research they get shows them how they can reach that point.

They know they are more likely to reach that point with 1M players vs 1. It's common sense. They care greatly right now about players. Because currently software sales are nothing.

Before you think I'm over dramatizing the sales numbers:

Title A sells $1M in DVD sales for week 1.
Title A sells $33k in BD sales for week 1.
Title A sells $19k in HD DVD sales for week 1.

That is how it would look right now. Even Transformers in a week did something like $166M in DVD sales and $3.4M in HD DVD. So the best titles have noticable figures but they still pale in comparison to DVD.

That is why from a stock perspective lots of Disney stock holders keep bringing up "why aren't we neutral?" in every yearly meeting. WB is brilliant imho because they double dip. Sure it's still pennies to the Studios, but what they're doing promotes growth in both formats and again double dips. 300 has sold amazingly well on both formats.

So sales numbers are so low right now all Studios care about is making that number bigger and who can get them there. They know that realistically the one with more stand alone players will do so.

If there had been no PS3 this war would have ended last January and Studios would have been jumping off the BD ship before it sank.

I loved Sony. Consider this:

Sony used to sell more TVs than all the competition combined.
Sony was number 1 in the Console Wars.

Forget Beta, MD, SACD, etc. Sony was the king. They were TV gods. The word "Trinitron," used to be a household name.

They are no longer the TV gods they once were. Vizio of all people has taken over the LCD flat panel market, Samsung has taken a giant chunk out of the TV picture. Sony is no longer Sony. In the Console market, they are 3rd. They're happy about brisk holiday sales, but those numbers are still third best.

The market has changed since Sony was a CE God. "Cheap," but well built controls the market place. Vizio makes an alright TV, and a great one for the price.

Downloadable music has taken over and it too is cheap.

Those cheap HD DVD players mean that the market is quickly going to start buying them up and there isn't much the enthusiasts can do about it.

On paper I'm a firm believer in BD, but in practice HD DVD isn't that bad at all. I'm hoping the new 34GB and 51GB discs work swell, because all that would hold it back is bandwidth and with compression getting better... if I have to settle, HD DVD isn't that bad.
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