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Old 11-29-2007   #6
Super Member
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Texas
Posts: 938
Default Re: Blu-Ray wins on Black Friday week.

Originally Posted by TheMoose View Post
Wal-Mart doesn't report software sales to Nielsen so those weren't included.

Well according to this & many other stories this wasn't such a major change for software sales, Blu-Ray has has a 2-1 software sales lead for a long time.

Blu-ray has yet to lose a week to its rival this year, with Blu-ray holding a 2-to-1 average sales advantage. Achieving a nearly 3-to-1 sales advantage for the important shopping week despite an influx of sub-$100 HD DVD players shows that consumers continue to choose Blu-ray as their preferred high definition format.

I've always maintained that it will be software sales that decides the war, Studios don't sell hardware they sell software & will go to the side that can sell the most movies.
Toshiba & MS can throw all the cash they want at the studios but if the big sales numbers are in Blu-Ray that's where they will end up.
Yea MS has a lot of cash despite the initial failure of Vista to be widely accepted & the fact they have never made a profit on the Xbox consoles shows their willingness to throw money around but how long can Toshiba bleed $$ before it really starts to hurt the company?

It's going to be hard to spin this, despite the fact Toshiba had sold a bunch of players at fire sale prices Blu-ray still creams them on a very important shopping period.
Right YTD at the end of October BD software was outselling HD DVD 1:85 to 1, that number DROPPED to 1:73 to 1 before the week of Black Friday. If anything that week will push it back to around 1:9 to 1.

Remember that capable players BD outnumbers HD DVD 7 to 1. The 2 to 1 software edge is not all that important when you realize that. Stand Alone players are important and that software edge being so low proves it. So they do care about hardware. If through September Hardware sales had HD DVD having a 9% lead didn't make Sony worry, the fact that November has HD DVD approaching an 60% lead does. 3 to 1 in Hardware sales for the last month is a substantial improvement. Holiday PS3 sales will be high, so software won't see the improved HD DVD playerbase numbers until likely February or so.

If December keeps a 3 to 1 Hardware lead (and there is no reason to think it won't, $200 players win out over $400 players) then the final 2 months of the year will show that HD DVD has gained a significant amount on BD and the software numbers will show it next year.

Sony isn't going to match MS in $$$ offered for WB and New Line's exclusive partnership. So 2008 is going to get ugly in the format war.

You'll basically have Sony, MGM, FOX, Disney, Lionsgate vs Universal, Paramount, Dreamworks, Warner Brothers, and New Line.

I'm not sure about you, but that even Studio ground will mean that players that cost HALF as much as the next guys will make a big deciding factor for the consumer. Plus you have Disney stating that HD DVD would have to get to 1M stand alone players for them to rethink their strategy. That will happen in 2008.

Hardware sales are going to force certain Studios to change their strategies. If HD DVD ever gets the edge in Studio numbers the war is over if BD can't match them in price.
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