I don't know,
I just don't see Joe 6 pack buying into a new format while there are 2 incompatible versions & he can't get every movie he wants on either HD-DVD or Blu-Ray.
While I do see the formats being driven by the game consoles that is also not the way to get Joe 6 pack interested, Joe's not interested in playing games he wants to watch movies on his new HDTV.
I was hoping for a quick winner but that just isn't going to happen, & the longer it goes on the more the competitors are going to have invested & that will make them dig their heels in even deeper.
This war IMO is not good for the consumer.
I want to be able to buy any movie I want & have it play on my player (& No I don't want a universal player!).
Were these formats released too soon?
I mean what is the saturation of HDTV's 20%? & what is the saturation level of High definition discs (both formats) 5% of that 20%?
There is just not enough people buying either format for a decision to be made on a winner or a loser.
Even though Blu-Ray has been out selling HD-DVD 2-1 when you look at the actual sales numbers that's only what, a few hundred thousand units? That's not even a blip on DVD sales.
Only when there are enough sales that a 2-1 margin is in the millions of units will it start to influence the "suits" that have the power to end the war.
That being said, IMO This holiday season will be a BIG
for all HD, HDTV's, HD disc players & HD service in the home (cable vs Sat).
I think this Xmas may start to show a trend, there will probably be as many high def players sold this holiday season as have already been sold since the format war started.
My reasoning is there is enough HDTV's in peoples houses that almost everyone has a buddy that has one & he has seen a football game in HD or some prime time shows in HD & that got him thinking, & with HDTV prices getting lower all the time (Vizio) old Joe might be thinking this year he'll give himself a HDTV for XMAS.
Hopefully at the same time he'll pick up a $299 HD disc player (which I think will be available in both formats) & the number of discs sold will start to add up.
It's also going to be a HUGE
year for content.
Next month DirecTV will be rolling out 100 HD channels (YEA!!
) I believe Dish will have about half that amount by the end of the year & cable will have no choice but to follow.
This Xmas will be a perfect HD storm, Affordable HDTV's & finally a boatload of content.
Xmas 07 & 08 will be the ramping up seasons, Xmas 09 may be the deciding year on who wins the format war.
But what the hell do I know!!