Personally I don't think Blu-ray is anywhere near dead yet. It may eventually happen, but it will take awhile. In fact, right now all evidence indicates just the opposite. Just consider the following recent news items:
Blu-ray standalone sales explode!
According to new figures from the NPD Group, Blu-ray standalone sales for the Q1 2009 increased over 72 percent year-on-year from 2008, to over 400,000 units. Perhaps even more importantly, dollar sales increased to $107.2 million, an increase of 14 percent year-on-year. "The rising penetration of high-definition televisions and lower Blu-ray player prices are broadening the format’s market opportunity," added Ross Rubin, director of industry analysis at NPD. "Even as options expand for accessing movies digitally, Blu-ray is carrying forward the widespread appeal of DVD into the high-definition marketplace." The aptly named March 2009 update “Blu-ray Report” also showed that Blu-ray had reached 90 percent awareness in the US in the past six months. Six percent of respondents also added that they were “extremely or very likely” to buy a player in the next six months, which was slightly up from 5 percent last time the "Report" was issued. The "Blu-ray report" also added that the average selling price for stand-alone fell 34 percent year-on-year, from $393 USD to $261 USD. NPD notes that users are likely to buy in the next six months for the average of $214. “The leading driver of Blu-ray purchase intent is recommendations from friends, family or co-workers,” said NPD’s entertainment industry analyst, Russ Crupnick. “Blu-ray’s superiority used to be difficult for many consumers to grasp, but when friends rave about it, or demonstrate Blu-ray in their homes, they are selling the benefits in a way that is far more effective than simply viewing an advertisement or seeing it demonstrated at a retail store.” http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/17898.cfm
DVD and Blu-ray still most popular way to get video
Despite all the attention garnered by technology like streaming video and internet VOD, Americans still spend more money on discs than any other type of video delivery. In this year's update to their annual Entertainment Trends In America survey, analysts at the NPD Group found 88% of money spent on home video acquisition going to DVD and Blu-ray purchases and rental. "Discs are still and by far the dominant way Americans enjoy home video, but there is an increasing appetite for digital options," said Russ Crupnick, entertainment industry analyst for NPD. "The good news is that the consumers engaging with digital video today also tend to be heavy consumers of DVDs and Blu-ray Disc, but it remains to be seen just how long physical discs and digital formats can co-exist." Of course spending on discs and streaming aren't mutually exclusive. If you happen to be one of the several million Netflix subscribers you get access to their Watch Instantly service for free. As a result they've managed to become the country's most successful streaming video provider. But there are still obstacles to streaming that go beyond dollars and cents. It's not terribly unreasonable for many Americans to stream a DVD resolution movie, but HD content isn't quite so simple. With more than two and a half times the number of pixels, the bandwidth required for streaming even 720p video isn't quite as readily available or cheap. VOD services like the one offered by Blockbuster, address that problem by letting you download before viewing. For now it looks like the hurdles to internet-based video are big enough that you shouldn't expect discs to go away anytime soon. The data was collected from an online survey of 6,994 consumers aged 18 or higher in the US. http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/17950.cfm