Why it is still a lock for Democrats
This fight between Obama and Clinton is pathetic. Its keeping me from giving them any money at this stage but I will later as we can't have the failures we have had in this country (think: there is a 6 foot 5 guy responsible for 9/11 who was never caught yet we invade a different country) any longer.
While i think the popular vote is more meaningful (so does Al Gore, I bet) we still have the old college thus it might be time to look at who can win what states to see if there is anything to worry about or will we elect a president who thinks we are actually WINNING in Iraq.
In modern politics, red states tend to always go red and blue states always blue leaving a few key swing states o determine the race. Those big swing states are FLA and OH which were both red. Do you think they are red this time out in 2008? Health care is a big issue in FLA and they have a lot of older Americans who vote there. The economy is a big issue in OH and there won't be as much fooling around with disinfranchising voters there like there was in 2004. I know a few Californians who are going with video cameras to monitor polling stations at their own cost to keep Karl Rove's dirty tricks to a minimum.
But where the rubber hits the road is in the Southwest. Arizona, although booming under a Democratic Gov, will vote for McCain for certain but NM (lost by 2% in 04) will go blue. Nevada (Lost by like %7 in 04) is more unionized than ever and enjoying people from CA moving there for cheaper housing. Colorado has the same effect (lost by 9%) with people from the east and CA moving looking for more affordable housing.
Even if you say the Dems lose FLA and OH - they would win with the new Southwest.
Moreover - if LA votes republican, they will have missed the only real chance they would have to voice their opinion on the gross mismanagement of the Katrina disaster. George Bush could have appointed someone other than a moron to the position OR could have sent in real relief but didn't. If they go red - they deserve the bad treatment in my eyes. That's NOT how we roll in America. Politics are imperfect for certain but we always should vote out the real idiots from either side of the isle.
Jerry Del Colliano