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Old 02-19-2008   #356
Vinyl Rules!
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Thumbs up Geeks Indifferent to Hi-Rez DVD [Was: Re: HD Disc Format War Not Over By a Long Shot]

Quote:
Originally Posted by kennyt View Post
Vinyl,

10 Mbps is no where near what a Blu-ray disc puts out! This is where the problem arises now, and I have to continue my stance that bandwidth DOES cost. If you are the only one downloading something, Apple probably couldn't even tell, but when ten million people all want the next POTC in 1080p with uncompressed audio the day it comes out, it will tie up even massive bandwidth, and thereby add cost. I agree it likely won't be the impediment to the format, but it is significant now, and for the foreseeable future.

KT
Ken,

Your viewpoint is a minority viewpoint within the world of geeks. This is from a geek e-letter I subscribe to:

"After the news broke yesterday that HD DVD was about to raise the white flag, geek news site Slashdot.com put up an impromptu poll for its readers, asking, "Now That Blu-ray Has Won ...?"

* I'll Get A Player By Summer
* I'll Get A Player By the End of the Year
* Still Not Convinced HD is Worth It
* Holding Out For Downloads
* I Want My HD DVD
* My Media Is In CowboyNeal's Hands

Almost half of the 28,000 respondents at the time of this story's publishing said they still aren't convinced that high-definition DVD is worth the upgrade from traditional DVD technology. The next biggest group of respondents said they are still waiting for high-definition downloads. Geeks tend to be early adopters of technology, so this poll could be very telling."

Translation: The real geeks are not going to purchase many Blue Ray players or Blue Ray discs because (1) They don't care about the difference; and/or (2) They know the HD downloads are coming.

And I don't know why you keep hanging on to your bandwidth argument: Your thinking is just like that of Corning, the company that used to be the largest manufacturer of fibre optic cable in the world. 20 years ago they embarked on a major expansion of their plants as they envisioned a world where road right-of-ways would constantly be torn up and more and more fibre optic cable would be laid to accommodate the all those extra optical 0's and 1's that were going to be sent to business and residential customers.

But guess what? They got bit in the ass, big time, by a technology called "DWDM:" Dense Wave Digital Multiplexing. This technology multiplexes a optical light wave into hundreds of different "carriers" that can be sent down the same single strand of cable that could previously only carry a single lightwave. This paradigm shift came close to putting Corning out of business, they closed many of their plants, laid off thousands of employees, and have never fully recovered from DWDM's impact on their fibre optic cable business. They never saw it coming because they were so focused on their cable and not looking at how someone might pump more information over the cable.

I was helping one of the major Telcos develop and deploy SONET (Synchronous Optical Network) rings at the time and we could not believe Corning was so oblivious to the threat DWDM posed to their business model. And the companies that developed the early DWDM equipment were small enough they could have been acquired by Corning and we were doubly surprised they never acquired any of these DWDM companies. As a carrier, we had zero interest in laying more fibre optic cable when we could EXPONENTIALLY increase our bandwidth over our existing fibre optic cable with DWDM equipment. We understood this, and Corning never did, until it was too late for them.

Now, let me clue you in on a little secret. Once a company like Verizon has fibre running directly to your home, they can pump hundreds of extra channels at super-fast speeds into your home with deployment of DWDM equipment throughout their backbone. And DWDM equipment is dropping in price. Can you even remember when 9.6 kbs dial-up external modems cost $300? Now you cannot even give them away for scrap. A technology paradigm shift called DSLAMM's and DSL made dial-up redundant.

Same thing is going to happen to DSL speeds because of competition from cable, 3G, and 4G. In the metro markets, most of us will see significant speed increases every 18 to 24 months at no increase in cost.

Bandwidth costs are going to become insignificant as all of the major carriers build out their network in the rush to provide faster content of all types of media.

50MB to 100MB downloads will be here much sooner than you think, and they will be priced the same as the 5MB to 10MB speeds you are paying for now.

Don't believe me? Go to slashdot.com where the knowledgeable geeks hang out and see what they think.
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